New Market Research Report: Romania Retail Report Q3 2010

New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Romania Retail Report Q3 2010"
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June 15, 2010 - PRLog -- The Q310 BMI Romania Retail report forecasts that the country's total retail sales will rise by nearly 19% by 2014, growing from a predicted RON20.79bn (US$6.81bn) in 2010 to a forecast RON 24.64bn (US$8.45bn) by 2014. Continuing wage growth, the recent consumer lending boom and rising disposable income following the introduction of a new flat rate of income tax are key factors behind retail market expansion. Romania's privatisation process since 1990 and EU membership since in 2007 have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 5.1% in local currency terms.

Romania's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$161.16bn in 2010, up by 2.0% from 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 3.5% is forecast by BMI between 2010 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 21.4mn in 2010 to 21.3mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to grow by 54.9% by 2014, reaching US$11,675. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$5,273 in 2010 to US$7,876 in 2014.

Wage growth in Romania, as in many other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, has accelerated quickly over the past few years, more than doubling between 2002 and 2006 from US$1,932 to US$4,083. The European Commission forecast nominal and real 2008 wage growth in Romania to be the fastest among all 27 member states, and BMI estimates the 2009 average annual wage at US$5,224.

Romania has the second largest population in Central Europe, after Poland, with 39.2% of the total in the 20-44 age range in 2005, according to UN Population Division data. This segment of the population, which accounts for an important element of future retail spending, is forecast to increase to 41.1% in 2010. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 70.1% in 2005 and is predicted to reach 70.7% in 2010.

Non-food retail sub-sectors benefiting from changing patterns of consumption in Romania include clothing and footwear, which constituted 6.2% of total household monthly expenditure in 2006, up from 5.9% in 2001, according to the Institute of National Statistics (INS). Furniture accounted for 4%, up from 2.9% in 2001.

Other retail sub-sectors that are likely to experience strong sales growth over the period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, which BMI predicts will total US$0.67bn in 2010 and grow by nearly 42% to US$0.95bn by 2014. Vehicle sales are forecast to reach US$3.86bn in 2010 and more than double, to US$8.33bn, by the end of the forecast period.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,184bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,032bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for 80% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to remain steady through to 2014. For Romania, its forecast market share of 3.4% in 2010 is expected to increase to 4.7% by 2014.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Romania Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Romania Political SWOT
- Romania Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Romania Economic Activity, 2005-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Central And Eastern Europe Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Romania's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Romania Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Romania's MGR Market - Number Of Outlets, 2004-2009
- Table: Structure of Romania's MGR Market - Sales, 2004-2009
- Table: Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2009
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Sales, 2005-2014
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 7 2019
- Industry Developments
- Romania Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Romanian Autos Sector, 2008 (CBUs)
- Table: Romania Passenger Car Market Key Players, 2007-2008 (CBUs)
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Autos Sales, 2007-2014
OTC Pharmaceuticals
- Romania Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: OTC Market Indicators, 2005-2014
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

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Tags:Retail, Wage, Scenario, Autos, Pharmaceuticals, Mgr, Grocery, Cee, Otc, Cbus
Industry:Retail, Shopping, Research
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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