New Market Research Report: Iran Defence & Security Report Q3 2010

June 4, 2010 - PRLog -- The Iranian regime remains under pressure, both domestically as well as internationally.

Diplomatic moves to ease the tensions over Iran's nuclear programme remain deadlocked. The United States is threatening much tougher sanctions but these are being blocked by China. The impasse only increases the prospect of an Israeli military strike.

At the same time, both Yemen and Saudi Arabia have accused Tehran of providing support for the Houthis Shi'a rebels in Yemen.

Economically, Iran is experiencing only a weak recovery. We expect real GDP growth to be only 1.6% in FY2009/10, rising to a still unspectacular 3.7% by FY2011/12.

Iran is one of the world's largest crude oil producers and in FY2007/08 the oil industry represented 27% of GDP. We see oil production remaining essentially flat over the forecast period, meaning it will not be able to contribute to economic growth.

Politically, anti-government sentiment is still running high. The consensus view is that it would require a major tactical mistake for this unrest to be capable of growing to the point where it topples the government. First of all, the opposition is divided and, therefore, relatively ineffective. Secondly, the government continues to keep tight control over the media. On December 21 2009, it banned Andisheh No (New Thought), one of the last remaining reformist newspapers. This followed the earlier banning of Hayat-e No (New Life), a newspaper which belonged to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's brother.

Even so, the regime is clearly nervous about the domestic risk. After all, the toppling of the government of Kyrgyzstan in early April was almost completely unexpected. In Iran, there is a precedent for people power bringing down the government. Thirty years ago, it was able to dislodge the Shah. In all these regime change events it has proved virtually impossible to predict in advance when, or if, the critical tipping point would be reached.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Iran Security SWOT
- Iran Defence Industry SWOT
- Iran Political SWOT
- Iran Economic SWOT
- Iran Business Environment SWOT
Global Defence Overview
- Table: Election Timetable, 2010
Middle East Security Overview
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Scenarios For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Iran's Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Foreign Policy
Domestic Security Overview
- MKO
- Kurdish Groups
- Sunni Extremists
- Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Current Strength
- Historical Strength
- Equipment
- International Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
- Background Brief: Iran's Nuclear Programme, 2002-2009
- Delivery Vehicles
Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Key Players In Iran's Defence Sector
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Iran's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Iran Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Iran - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Profiles
- International Companies
- China Great Wall Industries Corporation
- Sukhoi
- Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
- Domestic Companies
- Aerospace Industries Organization
- Ammunition Industries Group
- Defence Industries Organization
- Iran Electronics Industries
Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2005
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources

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