"Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q3 2010" Published

May 28, 2010 - PRLog -- The key recent development in Central Asia is the overthrow of the government in Kyrgyzstan.

None of the five Central Asian republics - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - is in any meaningful way democratic and so regime change is always likely to be eventful. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have not had a change of leadership since before the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Tajik President assumed office in 1992. Turkmenistan only changed leaders when Saparmurat Niyazov (arguably the most repressive leader in the region) died suddenly in 2006.

Kyrgyzstan had been at least a little different. President Askar Akayev was deposed in the peaceful 'Tulip revolution' that brought President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to power. Bakiyev promised a more inclusive government and less corruption. In the end, however, he appears to have behaved much like the region's other leaders. His appointment of members from his southern clan and especially members of his own family to key posts angered many in the north. He was apparently grooming his son, Maksim Bakiyev, to succeed him.

Nevertheless the regime change, when it occurred, was quite unexpected. The particular factors that turned a level of discontent into an irresistible force for change are not really clear. A large increase in electricity prices and a widely held belief that the electricity business was being privatised for the personal benefit of Maksim Bakiyev was certainly a factor. While security forces initially tried to quell the revolt and killed a number of protesters, it was almost immediately clear that there was no stomach for the major action that would have been needed. President Bakiyev retreated to his home region of Jalalabad but was soon forced into exile. Several other members of the regime, including the defence minister, have been arrested.

At this time, the other republics appear to be operating on a 'business as usual' basis. Kazakhstan assumed presidency of the OSCE in January, prioritising security over human rights. On February 8 2010, the OSCE media freedom representative denounced the Kazakhstan court ruling that convicted five opposition newspapers for printing corruption allegations.

In Tajikistan, President Rakhmon's People's Democratic Party won 55 of 63 seats in parliament. The largest opposition party won just two. The February 28 elections were criticised observers for failing to meet basic democratic standards.

In Uzbekistan, closed trials have begun for nearly 70 people charged in connection with the murders of Tashkent's chief imam and anti-terrorism law enforcement officer in July-August last year. The US has announced that it is to resume a military education program for Uzbekistan that had been suspended after 2005 Andijan massacre.

Seen in the broader strategic view, the region will remain important to the major powers because it lies geographically on the point of intersection between the zones of influence important to Russia, China and the United States. Despite the tensions between them, all the republics seem to sense the leverage they can gain by favouring alternately each of these powers.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Central Asia Security SWOT
- Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
- Central Asia Political SWOT
Global Defence Overview
- Table: Election Timetable, 2010
Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe And Central Asia Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe And Central Asia State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Central Asia Conflict Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Central Asia Political Overview
- Kazakhstan
- Kyrgyzstan
- Tajikistan
- Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan
Central Asia Regional Security
- The Geopolitical Importance Of Central Asia
- Challenges And Threats To Central Asia's Stability
- Table: Eurasian Organisations
- Table: Central Asia Trade Patterns, 2007
- Recent Developments
- Islamist Extremism And Transnational Threats
- Table: Central Asia Insurgent Groups
- Internal Instability
- Inter-Regional Competition And Co-operation
- Regional Organisations
- Land Borders
- Water
- Natural Resources
- Regional Military Relations With Russia, China And The US
- The US Presence
- Operation Enduring Freedom
- Russia And China In Central Asia
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Kazakhstan's Armed Forces
- Kyrgyzstan's Armed Forces
- Tajikistan's Armed Forces
- Turkmenistan's Armed Forces
- Uzbekistan's Armed Forces
- International Deployments
- Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Kazakhstan's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Kazakhstan's Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Table: Kyrgyzstan's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Kyrgyzstan's Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Table: Tajikistan's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Tajikistan's Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Table: Turkmenistan's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Turkmenistan's Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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