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Follow on Google News | Betting Tips and the Value Bet in Soccer BettingCounting your profits at the end of the season, you find them, at the very least, disappointing. Why? The reason is clear: bad money management.
By: Les Kane This article summarizes a research conducted in order to estimate the optimal parameters for money management strategies. The research is based on a comparison between statistics of top vs. secondary European soccer leagues playing in 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons. In order to present the results of the research, a number of definitions are required. -- "Value bet" is the measure of inconsistency between punters' and bookmakers' predictions for the upcoming match outcome. Each outcome has a distinct value. -- A value bet refers only to the value of potentially profitable outcomes. For example, if the probability of a win is 50%, then only outcomes with odds higher than 2 are considered a value bet. The formula is as follows: odds x the probability of a win. If the value is higher than 1, the bet is considered a "value bet". -- The probabilities of home win/draw/away win are estimated by the average frequency of their appearance during a season. -- Kelly's strategy defines the optimal stake that a punter should place on a favorite. -- Given the value of each outcome, the profit is calculated based on the assumption that the punter places a stake according to the Kelly's strategy. If the betting stake is negative, the punter doesn't play. The profit is calculated using bookmakers’ average betting odds. -- An optimal value bet is the value bet that brings the maximal profit. Data from ten top and ten secondary leagues from the following European countries was analyzed: Austria, England, Netherlands, France, Germany, Greece, Italia, Scotland, Spain and Turkey. A punter's average profit from soccer betting is calculated for value bets from 1.01 to 2. The optimal value bet was found to be 1.38, offering in an average profit of 12% for the top European Soccer Leagues. However, the optimal value bet for the secondary leagues was found to be 1.5, resulting in the average profit of 19%. This difference means that a punter must have a higher confidence when betting on a secondary league, than when betting on a top league. The profit is higher because bookmakers’ predictions are worse, resulting in attractive betting odds for punters. http://www.scibet.com/ End
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