Market Report, "South Africa Shipping Report Q2 2010", published

April 16, 2010 - PRLog -- 2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industry observers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remained afloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuated from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes have become increasingly tied to China's raw material needs. For the Q409 South Africa Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput and container volumes at the country's ports for 2009, taking into account the most recent monthly data. Using one of South Africa's main ports, the port of Durban, as an example, BMI has revised its throughput figures for this port. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnage throughput will fall by 15.79% year-on-year (y-o-y), with container throughput set to decline by 13.58%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the South African shipping sector. We predict that a gradual recovery in the country's port throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon the fact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting South Africa's total trade to increase by 3.07% in 2010. Using the port of Durban again as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 0.28% while container volumes will increase by 3.43% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a total of 34.962mn tonnes and 2.36mn TEUs in 2010. We have also calculated expected throughput volumes at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011- 2013). For the country's main ports we predict average yearly changes in the total tonnage throughput and container volumes for the period. This allows us to predict whether or not these changes will enable the ports to reclaim their pre-downturn levels of tonnage throughput and to reverse the ports' 2009 container decline during our forecast period. South Africa's port throughput recovery is reliant upon South Africa's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMI predicts that South Africa's total trade will decline by 7.54%. A gradual recovery is forecast to begin in 2010 with imports estimated to grow by 3.5% and exports predicted to increase by 2.5%. Also in this report, BMI predicts average yearly change in the country's total trade over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Germany, the US, China, the UK, Angola and Saudi Arabia to change dramatically over the mid term.

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