March 4, 2010 -
PRLog -- The pharmaceutical market in Mexico will reach a value of MXN114.8bn (US$8.6bn) by the end of 2009, up from MXN109.1bn (US$9.8bn) in 2008. Growth will continue to 2014, reaching MXN153.2bn (US$14.9bn). Per-capita drug spending will rise from US$79 in 2009 to US$133 by 2014. While the rising population should drive demand, we note that the patterns of drug spending in Mexico are changing. BMI expects total drug market expenditure in Mexico to increase from MXN153.2 (US$14.95bn)
in 2014 to MXN226.9bn (US$25.9bn) by 2019. Our outlook accounts for the expected increase in participation in the Seguro Popular health insurance scheme, which is being promoted by the government. In line with increased medical coverage, BMI also believes people will be more likely to purchase medicines from licensed legal premises instead of resorting to the black market. This should also remove some of the demand for counterfeits, and will marginally reduce the proportion of over-the-counter drugs (OTC) in the total drug market. Several regulatory issues will continue to dampen generic drug sales. As mentioned, the lack of clarity in definitions between patented, generic and similare is problem. At BMI, we do not include similares in our forecasts. Various regulatory bodies, including the Ministry of Health and the State Employees' Social Security and Social Services Institute (ISSSTE), the Federal Commission for Protection Against Health Risks (COFEPRIS) disagree on the differences. The lack of communication between these authorities is unsurprising and reflects the approach of national sector regulation in the country. Moreover, any agreements on what constitutes a generic is not then openly and clearly conveyed to public relations groups, leaving the public relatively ill-informed, despite the reach and scale of the Mexican media. Since purchasing a majority stake in Ranbaxy, Japanese drugmaker Daiichi Sankyo has been keen to expand its geographical reach. In October 2009, Ranbaxy announced that it is leveraging its marketing subsidiary in Mexico to launch new innovator products from Daiichi Sankyo. In our view, the events are unsurprising - Mexico is the largest market in Central America and the second only to Brazil in Latin America. Maximising Ranbaxy's established presence there is a key strategic move in expanding Daiichi Sankyo's target markets. Ranbaxy's marketing experience in developing markets was an attractive feature for Daiichi Sankyo, particularly as it has been selling over 50 types of medicine in Mexico since 2004. The Indian firm states that its effective sales force and competitive pricing are drivers for growth in Mexico. Furthermore, the patient uptake of new products coupled with the expanding portfolio Ranbaxy can offer through Daiichi Sankyo will mean that patented drugs can also be introduced to the market.
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