Market Report, "Germany Autos Report Q1 2010", published

Dec. 25, 2009 - PRLog -- The German automotive sector has shown stability following the introduction of the scrappage scheme by the government on January 13. However, as  BMI examines in its  Q309 Germany Autos Report, the sharp decline in commercial vehicle sales and falling export orders could mean that the worst may yet be to come. According to German interest group  Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA), passenger car sales soared by a massive 18% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.25mn in Q109 compared with the period last year. In contrast, total commercial vehicle sales fell by a staggering 27% y-o-y to 80,500 units, implying that the economy remain pessimistic.  BMI believes the impact of the credit crisis and recovery in the German economy will shape market demand in the short and medium term, but the issue of emission norms prior to its 2015 deadline will continue to influence market demand in Germany in the longer term. With an economic forecast of a 4.6% contraction in 2009, we expect domestic vehicle sales to decline due to lower consumer spending. We maintain our annual sales forecast of a close to 3% y-o-y decline, which is likely to be followed by mild recovery in 2010. In terms of production, Germany continued to bear the wrath of falling export demand. With passenger car and commercial vehicle exports declining by 40% and 66% y-o-y, respectively, German carmakers produced 31% fewer passenger cars, down to 1.4mn units, and 59% fewer commercial vehicles, down to 75,300 units, between January and April. We have revised down our production forecast to a combined 15% y-o-y fall by end-2009. The future for a sustained growth is uncertain, however, due to the carbon emission norms that come into effect from 2015. The crisis has also seen major developments in the competitive landscape within the industry as mergers and acquisitions (M&A) become the order of the day. Canadian partsmaker Magna International was chosen as a preferred part-owner of  General Motors (GM)'s German subsidiary  Opel. Meanwhile, cash-constrained  Porsche has given up its plans to own a 75% stake in  Volkswagen (VW) and is instead likely to merge with the German group. Autos parts suppliers are facing equally difficult times, as is evident from  Continental's plans to close down two of its most costly plants in Europe. Germany's stable market, assisted this year by the government's well-timed scrappape programme, places the country in the second position of  BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the autos industry in Europe. Sustained stability could help it reach first place.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Germany Autos SWOT
- Germany Political SWOT
- Germany Economic SWOT
- Germany Business Environment SWOT
- Business Environment Ratings
- Western, Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings
- Industry Developments - Western Europe
- German Resistance
- Improved Conditions
- Missed Opportunities For Some
- Vehicle Production 2008 at GM-Owned Facilities
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production and Sales
Table: German Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: German Autos Sector - Registration Figures For 2008
- Trade
Table: German Autos Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Germany - Autos Export Markets, 2007 (CBUs)*
- Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- GERMANY - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- Competitive Landscape
- Market Overview
- Historical Background
- Major Industry Players
Table: Top 10 Players, 2007-2008
- Industry News
Table: EU Block Exemption Regulation
- New Investment and Strategies
Table: Audi - Key Company Figures
Table: Volkswagen - Brands And Global Sales, 2008
- Industry Developments
- Company News
Table: Porsche And Volkswagen: Key Figures (2008)
- Suppliers
- Top Ten Suppliers In Europe (2007)
- Company Monitor
- Volkswagen
- BMW
- Mercedes-Benz
- Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Education, 2002-2005
- Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Average Annual Manufacturing Wages
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
- Sources
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