Newly published market report: Serbia Retail Report Q1 2010

Dec. 20, 2009 - PRLog -- The new  BMI Serbia Retail report predicts that the country's retail sales will grow from around US$16.5bn in 2007 to US$37.5bn by 2013. Underlying economic growth, rising levels of disposable income, falling unemployment and the development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Serbian retail sales. Serbia's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$40.8bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.3% is predicted by  BMI to 2013. With the population stagnating at approximately 7.4mn, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 76% over the forecast period, reaching US$7,233. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,355 in 2007 to more than US$13,000 by 2013. Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), plagued by political uncertainty and high unemployment that deters foreign investment. Low levels of disposable income, the prevalence of corruption and the poor state of infrastructure make this a challenging market. However, the medium- to long-term potential is significant, particularly if Serbia can achieve EU accession within the next several years. In 2005, almost 67% of the Slovenian population was described by the UN as active, and with just under 51% in the critical 20-44 age range. Just over half of the population was classified by the UN as urban (52.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have risen to 53.8%, although with a lower 47.8% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 66.8% of the population is expected to be active. The Serbian retail sector is still underserved and fragmented compared with more mature markets, with only 25 square metres (sq m) per 1,000 inhabitants compared with the EU average of 270 sq m. Retail sales for  BMI's universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.02bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on  BMI's macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.48bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For Serbia, the estimated 2007 market share of 1.6% is expected to rise to 2.1% by 2013.

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Serbia Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Serbia Political SWOT
- Serbia Economic SWOT
- Serbia Business Environment SWOT
- Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Business Environment
- Central And Eastern Europe Region
Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Serbia’s Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales By Key Segment, 2009e
- Organised Retail
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Serbia Economic Activity, 2005-2014
- Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2007-2014
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Trends
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Serbia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Serbia MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2014
Table: Serbia Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts 2008 And 2018
- Industry Developments
- Consumer Electronics
- Serbia Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview , 2006-2013
- Industry Developments
- Automotives
- Serbia Automotives Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
Table: Newly Registered Road Vehicles And Trailers, Q407 And Q408
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Serbia Autos Production And Sales Historical Data And Forecasts, 2007-2013
- Trade
Table: Serbia Autos Exports And Imports Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2013
Table: Serbia Autos Trade, 2006-2013
- Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000/01
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources


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