The Political Space for Barack Obama to act on climate change

Dec. 14, 2009 - PRLog -- Based on our Environmental Choices  public opinion data, this article describes the ‘political space’ that American politicians have to act on specific types of climate change policy. This document is part of a series - we are also releasing equivalent discussions for Canada and the UK.

Targets and Policies
A recent poll  suggests that American public opinion is generally behind a strong deal on climate change at Copenhagen. Yet, how do Americans feel about the policies that could credibly achieve these greenhouse gas reductions, and how might politicians engage citizens with their policies? Just as one example, policy-makers believe that a significant price on carbon  is an essential instrument for effective action on climate change. But what proportion of the public would support the higher fuel bills, and higher petrol prices, that would follow from implementing policies (such as cap-and trade or carbon taxes) which put a significant price on carbon?

In this article we consider the policy choices facing one particular politician – Barack Obama. Much of Barack Obama’s focus in recent months has been in persuading other countries, particularly China and India, to make commitments to tackle their greenhouse gas emissions . Such commitments should make domestic legislation more acceptable.  Barack Obama is due to visit the Copenhagen summit on December 18, 2009, to offer a 17% reduction in emissions, by 2020, from 2005 levels.

America is crucial to the level of success that international climate change agreements can achieve. There is some contribution that individual states  (notably California ), and the EPA can achieve , but US government legislation, due for a Senate vote in 2010, is required to support strong international policy frameworks (especially on cap-and-trade).

And, American public opinion is deeply divided on climate change – and this divide closely follows party political lines. Whilst the need to tackle ‘energy security/independence’ is a widely accepted issue, there are many different interest groups competing on this issue   , so it is not as closely aligned with the need to tackle climate change as it otherwise might be.

Overall attitudes to climate change policies
Below, the overall picture from our Environmental Choices study is that (like the English and Canadians) Americans are supportive of policies which ‘invest in green technology’, provide mixed support for regulation which limits high-carbon industries, and are mostly resistant to ‘carbon taxes’.

Six degrees of support for climate change policies
Using cluster analysis on attitudes towards these 8 climate change policies (see chart on previous page) amongst the full international sample, we can identify six groups with distinctly different sets of attitudes towards government policy. These groups can be considered to be on a spectrum of support for government ‘green’ policies. Below is a description of these groups, leading with the most supportive, and ending with the least supportive.

1. SUPPORTERS (13%)
Supporters of all climate change policies
The most ‘green’ group, representing 13% of all Americans, is generally supportive of all policy types – investment, regulation and carbon taxes. They are Climate Citizens  (6% of total sample), and Mild Greens (6%) and a limited number of Sceptics/Uninvolved (2%).

2. REGULATORS (18%) - Supporters of strong regulation and green investment; against car taxes
‘Regulators’ are the second most ‘green’ group, representing 18% of Americans. They believe that green policy should focus on strong regulation supported by green investment - but are resistant to higher car fuel taxes, and road pricing. This group are mainly Climate Citizens (9%) and Mild Greens (7%), but there are also some Sceptics/Uninvolved (2%).

3. INVESTORS (20%) - Supporters of green investment; strongly against car taxes or air taxes
The third most ‘green’ group, representing 20% of Americans, believe that green policy should focus on green investment – and are particularly strongly resistant to extra car taxes and flying taxes. They are mainly the either Climate Citizens (8%) or Mild Greens (9%) with a smaller number of Sceptics/Uninvolved (4%).

4. UNDECIDED (23%) - Mostly undecided; mildly pro-investment and mildly anti-car taxes
This fourth most ‘green’ group, and the largest, is currently not engaged with any of the different policy options tested. Without a reason to believe, in reality, people in this group are perhaps likely to resist regulation and carbon taxes. They are fairly evenly split between Climate Citizens (5%), Mild Greens (10%), and Sceptics/Uninvolved (8%).

5. NOT MY PROBLEM (10%) - Anti car taxes; ambivalent of investment; some support for regulation
This fifth most ‘green’ group disagrees with car taxes, and is ambivalent about green investment. There is some agreement that airports should be restricted and coal stations should not be built; perhaps because they see climate change as really a ‘business problem’. They are Sceptics/Uninvolved (4%), Mild Greens (4%) and Climate Citizens (1%).

6. OPPOSERS (15%) - Disagreement with all climate change policies
The least ‘green’ group disagrees with all policy options – and they unanimously strongly resist the idea of road pricing! They are Sceptics/Uninvolved (11%), Mild Greens (2%) and Climate Citizens (1%).


How Barack Obama could sell climate change legislation to the Americans
Whilst many of President Obama’s battles might be with political opponents, vested interests and the legislative process – this market research analysis focuses on public opinion. The data suggests that Barack Obama faces a ‘close-run thing’ in getting the American public to support strong and effective climate change legislation.

The key groups engaged with climate change policy options are ‘1. Supporters’, ‘2. Regulators’ and ‘3. Investors’; and together these groups constitute just over half of all Americans (51.5%).

Democratic party supporters are much more likely to be in these groups supportive of climate change policies. In contrast, fully 40% of Republican party supporters are either in the ‘5. Not my problem’ or ‘6. Opposers’ segments.

An integrated set of policies to tackle climate change would likely be needed to persuade the American public to support action on climate change. The public focus would likely be on green infrastructure projects, jobs and energy efficiency ; these would have general appeal. Regulation, such as on fuel efficiency standards, would likely need to be more treated more sensitively. It is perhaps no surprise that putting a price on carbon, through cap-and-trade legislation, looks likely to be the most difficult policy to sell to American citizens.

A relatively large group (23%) of Americans are ‘4. Undecideds’. Could many of this group be persuaded to embrace effective climate change legislation?


About Haddock Research & Branding, Inc.
Haddock Research & Branding Inc. is a full-service market research agency focusing on climate change and the low-carbon economy. Making use of the latest advances in survey design, Haddock advises businesses on how best to develop profitable low-carbon opportunities; and provides governments with the vital information they need to mobilize people to take action on climate change. For further information, visit our website - http://www.haddock-research.com

For enquiries, please contact either of the founding directors of Haddock Research and Branding - Peter Winters (North America) peter.winters@haddock-research.com  or James Ambler (Europe) james.ambler@haddock-research.com . The Environmental Choices™ survey is entirely self-funded.

Information from this press release comes from section report 2b. ‘Government Mandates for action on climate change’. More detailed analysis may be found within this report.

Any comments in this press release are solely the responsibility of Haddock Research and Branding, Inc.

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Haddock Research and Branding, Inc. is an innovative full-service market research agency focusing on climate change and the low carbon economy. Providing vital information to those creating a low carbon world.