Shape Up or Ship Out

Dec. 4, 2009 - PRLog -- The word on the Pakistani street is that the letter from President Obama, the visits by the US National Security Adviser and the Director CIA all conveyed the same message---come fully on board the US battle wagon and crack down on the Afghan Taliban. This US demand fits in with the US objective in Afghanistan-- create a situation that makes an exit feasible and acceptable. This is to be done by rapidly building up Afghan security capacity, pressing Karzai to end drug related corruption, undermine the Taliban by talks with ‘moderates’ and giving communities resistance capability and military/covert operations coordinated with Pakistan including drone strikes.

Since 2001 Pakistan has acted to deny sanctuary to Al-Qaeda leadership in its urban areas. This has led to the capture or elimination of 6 to 700 terrorist leaders. Pakistan has, at enormous cost, prevented terrorists from establishing a sustainable base in its western border areas and has launched successful determined military operations to retake spaces that were dominated by ‘Pakistan Taliban’—a mixture of ethnic groups sponsored and supported from across Pakistan’s western border but not exclusively by Afghanistan. Pakistan has provided logistics access and other cooperative support to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s military operations and cooperation with the US and NATO is ongoing. There are, and will continue to be, endless debates on the adequacy or otherwise of the recompense to Pakistan for the lives lost and the internal destabilization suffered in an environment that is generally perceived to be the result of US/NATO presence in Afghanistan.

Had Pakistan’s support been less than comprehensive the situation would have been far worse than what it is today. Had the option of aggression against Pakistan been used to get compliance then the result would have been total chaos and unimaginable consequences. The point to note is that Pakistan has cooperated in the war on terror in its own interest because it is neither for extremism nor for terrorism. The perception in Pakistan is that there is a pro-India and anti-Pakistan government in Afghanistan and that India is hostile to Pakistan and is actively working to destabilize it through every means possible. With the inevitability of a US/NATO exit from Afghanistan is it realistic to expect Pakistan to alienate the Pashtuns on both sides of its western border through military action? What is needed is not Pakistan getting on board the US strategy but more importantly for the US to take Pakistan on board in a joint strategy that takes into account Pakistan’s compulsions, constraints and concerns at this stage of the war on terror in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s political stability is most important. This can be achieved fairly rapidly through simple but much delayed corrective measures. Contrary to what is being said, no one in Pakistan wants democracy to be derailed---everyone including the military wants parliamentary democracy to continue. The present situation in Pakistan is not an ‘us or them’ power struggle—it is for continuity of the present system with corrections applied to the existing strategic direction. The military is committed to a prolonged deployment to stabilize the western border area and has already demonstrated its capacity for achieving decisive results and the military is being supported by the nation. Capacity has to be developed for internal security operations. It is important that Pakistan be a part of the US strategy in Afghanistan---this may, and should, involve a Karzai-Taliban dialogue because they (Afghan Taliban) are and will remain a part of Afghanistan---Pakistan can help to bring this about and in doing so it will be acting in its own long term interest. If there were any doubts about Indian hostility towards Pakistan then these should have been removed by the threatening statements from the Indian Prime Minister before his visit to the US prompting retaliatory statements from Pakistan----so much for ‘de-hyphenation’! The US needs to ‘influence’ an India-Pakistan rapprochement process. Home grown terror is now the threat across the world and this common threat should drive counter terror cooperation. Finally we have repeatedly stated that considering the importance of the US-Pakistan relationship there is an urgent need to address the perceptions and concerns that are undermining this relationship so that there can be a move towards meaningful long term cooperation---Pakistan stands to benefit enormously.

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