The ‘New’ Strategy - A letter delivered to President Zardari from President Obama

Dec. 4, 2009 - PRLog -- The Washington Post of November 30, 09 let the cat out of the bag. In an article by Karen de Young the Post revealed the details of a letter delivered to President Zardari from President Obama by the US National Security Adviser, General Jones. The article also gave details of what General Jones personally told his Pakistani hosts to reinforce and spell out the implications of President Obama’s message. Pakistan has not officially released any information on this matter so far nor has it confirmed if a reply has been sent. The Washington Post article comes ahead of President Obama’s speech scheduled for Tuesday at West Point.

According to the Washington Post the US has offered Pakistan an expanded strategic partnership with a blunt warning to stop using insurgent groups for policy goals. The clear message being that Washington believes that Pakistan is using such groups and that this is against the interests of the US. The message includes assurances of increased military and economic aid and states that there will be no US withdrawal from Afghanistan---a major Pakistani concern. President Obama, in his letter, is said to have mentioned –Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, the ‘Haqqani Group’, Lashkar e Taiba and the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan and stated that ambiguity by Pakistan in dealing with these can no longer be ignored by the US. Again the clear implication is that the US believes that there is ambiguity in Pakistan’s current policy. General Jones is reported to have interpreted the Obama message by spelling out that ‘certain things have to happen in Pakistan to ensure Afghanistan’s security’ and that ‘if Pakistan cannot deliver then the US may be impelled to use any means at its disposal to rout insurgents based along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan’. This really means that the US is determined to have its way one way or the other. This has its own implications. The British Prime Minister has also said that Pakistan must convince everyone that it is doing everything it can.

So far it is not clear if there is any mention of the interconnection between the unresolved issues in the region, the growing imbalance in conventional power between India and Pakistan, the perception in Pakistan of India’s inordinately large footprint in Afghanistan (something understood and mentioned by General McChrystal) and India’s policy of destabilizing Pakistan with the connivance of the Afghan government. Pakistanis cannot help noticing that the latest US demands were preceded by the Indian Prime Minister expressing his doubts on the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and the Indian Army Chief’s view that a limited war (between India and Pakistan) was possible under a ‘nuclear overhang”! Even if not specifically mentioned these are concerns that the US is aware of---perhaps what is not fully understood is the centrality of the need to resolve regional disputes before the environment can change.

In the context of President Obama’s letter it is important to know the details of the ‘new’ US strategy in Afghanistan and the time frame in which changes can start taking place in Afghanistan. The speculation is that US is likely to increase US troop strength by 35000 and expects NATO to pitch in with another 10000. How these troops are to be used is not quite clear yet. The earliest that these could be effective is mid 2010 given weather and other constraints. The Pakistan military is just completing operations in South Waziristan, Malakand, Swat, Mohmand, Orakzai and Khyber agencies. Pakistan is facing reprisal bomb attacks in urban areas and has lately identified Indian support of destabilization support operations. Putting all this together in what time frame is Pakistan expected to do what the US is asking it to do if it agrees to do so? Will it be within the capacity of Pakistan’s civilian law enforcing agencies to cope with the internal security situation that will be the consequence of actions against all the factions identified by the US? Reportedly the US is stepping up the pace of developing capacity in the Afghan National Army and Police. Will this expansion be inclusive because so far these forces lack any capacity and are dominated by northern factions like the Tajiks. If the pace is increased under the present circumstances then Pashtun representation is unlikely—therefore, besides other serious repercussions within Afghanistan, Pakistan will be faced by hostile Afghan Forces eventually. However, this process of Afghan capacity development is likely to take between 5-10 years going by the present post election environment in Afghanistan.

The conclusion that can be drawn is that the Obama letter can be the beginning of a dialogue between the US and Pakistan to move the relationship towards true strategic status. There can be agreement and a meeting of minds to stress the convergence between the US and Pakistan on the objectives of US-Pakistan cooperation in the war on terror in Afghanistan but each will have its own strategy. The real challenge is coordinating the strategies within a realistic mutually agreed time frame. The ambiguity being seen by the US in Pakistan’s policies is not ambiguity at all---it is a pragmatic appraisal of Pakistan’s environment and the possibilities with present capacity. If there is a perception of ambiguity then Pakistan should be helped to remove this and not pressured into hasty actions. Both the Washington Post and the New York Times have commented on the fragility of Pakistan’s political environment, the slow move towards confrontation and a divide between institutions---all this may not be true but political stability is critically important for decision making that can set correct strategic directions. Equally important is an improvement in the India-Pakistan relationship. The Afghan situation also needs review because an intra Afghan dialogue between factions is important and the north-south ethnic divide within Afghanistan is becoming a driving force for violence---this is being exploited by Al Qaeda. Pakistan remains central to any positive traction in the Afghan conundrum and Pakistan’s stability is the most important factor in the evolving scenario---this is a reality that cannot be wished away.

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