Newly published market report: South Africa Information Technology Report Q4 2009

Nov. 29, 2009 - PRLog -- BMI's latest update on South Africa's telecommunications market contains revised and extended forecasts for the development of the country's fixed-line, internet and mobile telephony services. Our new forecasts reflect Q308 data published by South Africa's leading telecoms operators, including fixed-line incumbent  Telkom, and the country's two largest mobile operators,  Vodacom and  MTN. In addition to revising our year-end estimate for the size of the South Africa's various telecoms market segments at the end of 2008, our new forecasts have been adjusted and extended to the end of 2013. We estimate that South Africa's mobile subscriber base grew by 7.3% in the first nine months of 2008. By the end of September 2008, mobile penetration had reached 97.9%. Although the fourth quarter of the year has traditionally provided a higher rate of growth, we believe that subscriber growth in general is slowing significantly. Overall, we estimate that the sector grew by 10.7% in 2008, including a fourth quarter growth rate of 3.2%. By the end of 2008, the mobile penetration rate had risen to almost 101%. Meanwhile, in the first half of its financial year (which ended on September 30 2008), fixed-line incumbent Telkom reported that it had 5.5mn fixed access lines in service, down 2.5% year-on-year (y-oy). Despite Telkom's continued fixed-line losses, our new fixed-line forecast also reflects the fixed-line customers of South Africa's 'second national operator'  Neotel, which began offering fixed-wireless services in mid-2008. We believe that the proliferation of fixed wireless services has already started to mitigate the rapid decline of the sector. In our newly updated fixed-line forecast for South Africa, we estimate that there were 4.66mn fixed-lines in operation at the end of 2008; this reflects growth of 1.9% for the year. Among the most notable developments from the past few months, which have implications for the future direction of South Africa's telecoms market, include the announcement, in November, that the ZAR25.0bn (US$2.5bn) offer by UK operator  Vodafone Group to acquire another 15% stake in Vodacom had been accepted. The deal will raise Vodafone's stake in Vodacom from 50% to 65%. Vodafone will acquire its additional 15% stake in Vodacom from Telkom. Meanwhile, South Africa's fixed-line incumbent is looking to offload its remaining 35% interest in Vodacom to its own shareholders. Despite losing control over Vodacom, Telkom has revealed that, once the Vodacom deal is finalised, it plans to launch a converged mobile-fixed-line package in the second quarter of 2009. It expects to enter a roaming pact with an existing mobile operator rather than build out its own network.
         

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
   South Africa IT Sector SWOT
   South Africa Telecommunications Sector - SWOT
   South Africa Political SWOT
   South Africa Economic SWOT
   South Africa Business Environment SWOT
   MEA IT Business Environment Ratings
   Regional IT Business Environment Ratings
   Market Overview
   Government Authority
   Industry Developments
   Industry Forecast
Table: South Africa's IT Industry -- Historical Data And Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated), 2006-2013
   Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
   Country Context
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012f (US$)
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030f
   Competitive Landscape
   Company Profiles
   IBM SA
   Sahara Computers
   Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
   Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030f
   Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030f
   Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012f
   BMI Methodology
   How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
   IT Industry
   IT Ratings - Methodology
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators
   Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
   Sources


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