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NAPRx Forecasts 4.5 - 5.5 Percent Growth for Pharmaceutical Market in 2009, Exceeding $820 Billion
The NAPRx forecast predicts global pharmaceutical sales to surpass $820 billion in 2009, reflecting sustained double-digit growth in key emerging countries tempered by a single digit pace in more established markets.
In the 2009 forecast, the report identifies the following key market dynamics:
Slowing Growth in Mature Markets.
This year, the U.S. pharmaceutical market, the world's largest, is forecast to grow 2 - 4 percent to $287 - $297 billion, down from the 4 - 6 percent rate expected earlier this year. Contributing to the slower growth is the the economic climate but the healthcare industry continues to be a star in the U.S. economy.
In 2009, the expected 2 - 4 percent growth rate in the U.S. will result in sales of $292 - $302 billion, and reflects the impact of continuing patent expirations, fewer new product launches and a tighter economy. The top five E.U. countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) are forecast to grow 3 - 4 percent next year, reaching sales of $162 - $172 billion. In Europe, growth driven by the continued aging of the region's population and rising demand for preventive care will be tempered by the increased impact of health technology assessments, the use of contracting by payers as a means to control costs, and the decentralization of government healthcare budgets. Japan, the world's second-largest market, is expected to see higher growth of 4 - 5 percent, reaching $84 - $88 billion. Approvals of new anti-cancer agents, disease prevention programs, and the absence of the Japan government's biennial price cuts all will contribute to stronger growth. Government efforts to promote the use of generics will have only a modest impact on the Japan market in 2009.
Rapid Expansion of "Pharmerging"
The pharmerging markets of China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia are forecast to grow at a combined 14 - 15 percent pace to $105 - $115 billion. Along with the pharmaceutical industry's increased focus on these high-growth markets, these countries are benefiting from greater government spending on healthcare and broader public and private healthcare funding - which is driving greater access to, and demand for, innovative medicines.
An Emphasis on Specialist-Driven Markets.
Products mainly prescribed by specialists are forecast to grow 8 - 9 percent in 2009 and are expected to contribute 67 percent of total market growth. Biologics are forecast to grow at an 11 - 12 percent pace, while oncology products will achieve 15 - 16 percent growth, and HIV therapies 13 - 14 percent growth. In contrast, products generally prescribed by primary care physicians are expected to grow 2 - 3 percent, due to the loss of patent exclusivity for several blockbusters and fewer significant product launches.
The National Association of Pharmaceutical Representatives®
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The largest association in the United States representing over 48,000 pharmaceutical sales representatives.