GasPredictor.com Claims Successful Forecast of Rising Gas Prices

Dec. 15, 2008 - PRLog -- GasPredictor.com, a Web site providing short-term forecasts of changes in retail gasoline prices, announces its first successful prediction of an increase in prices since it began publishing its forecasts.  Since they began publication on November 7, all they had to predict was decreasing prices.  At noon Friday, December 12, 2008, they forecast increasing prices over the weekend, and that forecast has proved to be correct.

The increase was first predicted in GasPredictor.com's "Intra-Day Gas Forecast," e-mailed to subscribers across the U.S. at 12:30 PM EST on Friday.  The forecast was repeated in their "Weekly Gas Forecast" at 4:30 PM EST, and released to the general public on their Web site at 9:30 PM EST Friday night.

Increases in retail gasoline prices were reported by the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Sunday, December 14, and the average price is continuing to increase as of the time of this press release.  This is the first recorded increase in retail gasoline prices since mid-July.

Chuck Bonner, founder and lead analyst for GasPredictor.com, ascribes the successful prediction to GasPredictor.com's unique methodology.  "We don't measure the same average gas prices that AAA and other widely-cited sources use, but we target the second-lowest posted gasoline prices in each of a dozen markets across the U.S.  These markets, each chosen to represent regional trends but not too close to any metropolitan area, have been very good indicators for us," Bonner says.  While GasPredictor.com has been developing its measurement and forecasting methodology for most of 2008, they have only been publishing their forecasts since early November.  Bonner says, "Our forecasts were very accurate during the rapid increases of the first half of this year, and again during the retail price free-fall since July, but we don't have complete day-to-day forecasts for most of that period.  Today is the first time since we began publishing that we have forecast an increase and that increase has been proven by the major reports like AAA."

GasPredictor.com had previously predicted an increase in gas prices over the Thanksgiving weekend.  "Over that long holiday weekend, retail prices did increase slightly or hold steady, according to our measurement methodology, but the averages based on AAA's methodology just didn't show the same effect," Bonner explains.  "Now, we can claim an unequivocally successful forecast of price increases."

GasPredictor.com only makes forecasts for one business day in the future, so they are not prepared to say whether today's increases are the start of a new upward trend in gas prices.  "You want to know where gas prices will be this Friday?," Bonner asks.  "So do I, but I can't tell you until Thursday!"

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About GasPredictor.com: GasPredictor.com publishes predictions of retail gas prices one day in advance on its Web site and via e-mail to subscribers. Visit our Web site for gas-saving tips and delayed daily forecasts of tomorrow's pump prices, or subscribe to get the forecasts before you go home from work.