Black Friday Predictions from GottaDeal.com, Web's Largest Black Friday Site

Sept. 22, 2008 - PRLog -- Having covered Black Friday extensively for the past five years, we at GottaDeal.com are in a better position than pretty much anyone else to offer predictions for this year. Over the years we've noticed trends in the deals offered by the major retailers and can offer a glimpse into what we believe will be the 2008 Black Friday deals and hot items.

HDTVs

While HDTVs have been popular Black Friday items in the past few years, we expect that this holiday season will be the tipping point for HDTV purchases by the average consumer. Prices have dropped this year more than any previous year, and with the digital TV transition happening in a few months, a large part of the general public is looking to get a new HDTV, and this Black Friday should provide an amazing number of deals.

With HDTVs, there is a very large amount on variation in quality. In many cases, the lowest-priced models on Black Friday are stripped-down models made exclusively for that retailer's sale. In many cases they lack features and the quality components used to manufacture higher priced models. That doesn't necessarily mean that these deals aren't great - it's just a case of buyer beware. You should not expect $2,000 performance from a $500 HDTV.

On to price predictions. We fully expect to see 42" plasma and HDTVs in the $499 range this year. During the last few months on GottaDeal.com, we've posted deals for 42" HDTVs for under $700 in a few cases, so it's completely realistic to expect at least one retailer to have a deal under $500 on such a model. These cheaper HDTVs will likely be 720p and will lack features found in more expensive models. We expect prices on 50" plasma and LCD HDTVs to also fall this Black Friday, perhaps to somewhere around $699-749.

Stepping up to the full 1080p resolution will cost a little bit more, but in most cases it will be worth the extra cost when you factor in how long you will be using this HDTV and how most sources in the future (television, movies, video games) will be in native 1080p resolution. On GottaDeal.com we've posted 42" 1080p LCD HDTVs for under $800 recently, so it would not surprise us to see a 42" 1080p LCD HDTV in Black Friday ads for $599. 46" and 50" versions should be available for around $749 and $999 respectively.

Deals on smaller HDTVs (and standard TVs with the new digital tuners) will also be plentiful this year. 32" LCD HDTVs will be had for $349-399 and 37" models will be $499 or less. For those looking to replace smaller bedroom TVs with HDTVs, expect great deals on both smaller LCD HDTVs as well as standard tube TVs that now include the new digital ATSC tuners. Stores these days tend to not stock as many of these because of size constraints, but they will often make one-time purchases for Black Friday, so expect something like a 20" TV with digital tuner in the $79-99 range.

While Black Friday is a great time to buy the loss-leader, lower-end HDTVs, if you are looking for a deal on a higher quality, name-brand HDTV, the best time to buy is typically in early to mid-December as retailers ramp up the deals to get those last minute sales before the holidays. And even if you miss those deals, the pre-Super Bowl TV deals are also very attractive.

Laptops and Desktops

One of the biggest hot Black Friday ad items traditionally has been the ultra-cheap laptop. However times have changed drastically in the last few years. Back in 2005, the thought of a $399 laptop made grown men drool with anticipation. However as component and manufacturing costs have dropped, it's not all that uncommon to see a $399 laptop in a Sunday ad any week of the year, or offered at online retailers such as Dell.

The recent surge in popularity of a new wave of "netbooks" - stripped down, mini laptops with 7-10" screens - has also had a big impact on the overall laptop market and the deals we can expect on Black Friday this year. Desktop computers, while still popular, are not as "sexy" as they've been in the past. They have become almost disposable because of price drops and the fact that it doesn't take much in terms of features to handle what 99% of the general public uses a desktop for in their daily lives.

If you are considering purchasing a laptop on Black Friday this year, we can't stress enough how important it is to decide what features you need and what you will be using the laptop for. There will be cheap laptops, but if they don't fit your needs, as good of a deal they may seem on the surface, you will end up disappointed soon after you purchase it. Questions to consider: what size screen do you need? Is weight an important factor? What about battery life? Do you need to be able to burn DVDs on the laptop? Some parts of the laptop (such as RAM memory) can always be upgraded later on, but other components such as screen size, battery life and processor are usually permanent.

The "classic" Black Friday laptop the last few years has had a 15.4" widescreen LCD display, a low-level dual-core processor, 2GB of memory, 160GB hard drive and usually a combo CD-RW/DVD drive, along with standard features such as WiFi, modem and ethernet port. Laptops like these have been available all year long from retailers such as Best Buy, Circuit City and Staples for as low as $399. Therefore we predict we'll see this level of laptop in Black Friday ads for around $299 this year. We'll also predict an upgraded model with a faster Core 2 Duo processor, 3-4GB of RAM, DVD burner and larger hard drive for $399, and maybe less.

As for the new "netbooks", we expect those to also be discounted on Black Friday, as retailers will use the ultra-low prices to "shock" the average consumer who wasn't aware that these laptops even existed. We've posted deals on GottaDeal.com during the year for these netbooks for as low as $199. As with regular laptops, these mini machines vary greatly in specs and features. We expect to see the cheapest of these netbooks for around $149 this Black Friday, but there will be deals on models with better features. Realize that these are not meant to be your primary machine. They are great for light tasks such as web browsing and e-mail, but the small screen size and smaller keyboard make long-term use uncomfortable.

Desktop computers will continue to sell, however we're reaching the point of diminishing returns as any budget desktop bought last Black Friday will be just as good as most advertised this year. For 99% of daily tasks (internet, e-mail, homework, office work), it doesn't take more than a low-end desktop to handle these tasks. This year we expect a mid-level desktop (dual core processor, 2GB of RAM, 320GB hard drive, DVD burner) bundled with a 19" or 20" LCD monitor to be in the $299 range. Upgrade to a faster processor, more RAM, bigger hard drive and a 22" monitor for $100 more.

We predict computer peripherals to be hotter this year than in previous years. Expect hot deals on LCD monitors - we are expecting 19" monitors for $69-79 and 22" models for possibly as low as $99. 24" models should be around $199 as well. With Blu-ray being the next-generation format winner, we expect some nice deals on both internal and external Blu-ray drives for PCs. Expect internal drives for $99 and external for $149. As with every Black Friday, expect a lot of deals on things like external hard drives, flash drives and mice/keyboard sets. These items always sell well on Black Friday and we expect those trends to continue this year.

For the full set of predictions, including many other categories, visit http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com

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Web site launched in 2004 dedicated to online bargains, deals and coupons. Features hundreds of new deals each week, online coupon codes and a large, active forum community. Specializes in Black Friday coverage in October and November of every year.