Ethylene Carriers: Fleet Set for Rapid Expansion?

July 1, 2008 - PRLog -- Since 2003, the orderbook for ethylene vessels has grown from just one vessel, representing 1.1 per cent of the fleet, to 45 vessels in July 2006, 55.0 per cent of the current fleet. This rise has meant that new orders will soon exceed production capacity.

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Market boom

Despite a ten year stagnation of the ethylene carrier market with limited investment, between December 2004 and July 2006 there was an unprecedented order boom for 44 new vessels. In the previous ten years, a total of only 26 carriers had been ordered.

Spot ethylene freight rates, which stayed around $120/mt between 2002 and 2004, began to climb in early 2004. By January 2005 transatlantic eastbound spot rates had exceeded $200/mt, reaching $225/mt by April 2006.

Sustainability

This predicts that good freight rates and forecasts of increased long-haul trade from new Middle-East production capacity will continue to drive production and new market entrants. Established ethylene carrier owners will have to capitalise on the forecasts of increased trade, defend their market share and modernise their fleets to sustain leadership.

This report finds that new production capacity and increased long-haul trade out of the Middle-East will create good demand growth for ethylene carriers, whilst scrapping will remove some capacity. With the huge orderbook and record number of deliveries due over the next two years, there is a high chance the ethylene carrier market will peak soon.

Table of Contents :-

Section 1. Executive summary

Section 2. Ethylene fleet
● Existing fleet
● Orders
● Orderbook
● Deliveries
● Deletions
● Scheduled deliveries
● Age profile and forecast scrapping
● Fleet to 2010

Section 3. Production and trade
● Properties and uses
● Capacity and production
● Trade

Section 4. Rates and markets
● Charter markets
● Spot rates and charterers
● Time charter rates and charterers
● Ethylene pools
● Ethylene carrier owners

Section 5. Vessel values
● Overview
● Newbuilding prices
● S&P market
● Ethylene shipbuilders

Section 6. Outlook

Appendices

Ethylene fleet – commercial details, start July 2006
Ethylene fleet – technical details, start July 2006
Ethylene carrier orderbook, July 2006
Ethylene carrier new orders, 2000-2006
Ethylene S&P transactions, 2000-2006
Ethylene carrier demolition sales, 2000-2006
Ethylene fleet age profile
Ethylene time charter fixtures - 2002-2006
List of Tables :-

Ethylene fleet and orderbook end-July 2006
Ethylene fleet development summary
Ethylene freight rates
Ethylene fleet development
Orders for new tonnage
Orderbook
Deliveries
Deletions
Scheduled deliveries
Forecast Scrapping (based on scrapping at 30 years of age)
Forecast fleet to 2010 based on current delivery schedule
Forecast fleet to 2010 based on current delivery schedule and forecast scrapping
Global Ethylene capacity and production
Regional Ethylene production
Ethylene capacity by region
Ethylene capacity by country
Ethylene expansion projects
Ethylene imports by selected country
South Korean ethylene statistics
EU-25 external Ethylene imports by country
Taiwan Ethylene imports by country
Indonesia Ethylene imports by country
China Ethylene imports by country
Ethylene exports by selected countries
South Korea Ethylene exports by country
Japan Ethylene exports by country
Mexico Ethylene exports by country
USA Ethylene exports by country
EU internal ethylene trade matrix, 2005
Ethylene seaborne trade matrix, 2005
Ethylene seaborne trade matrix, 2005
Prices
Ethylene spot freight rates
Time charter rates
Forecast S/R freight rates
Ethylene pools
Top 20 Ethylene carrier owners
Top 10 flag states
Top 5 class societies
7,500 cu.m ethylene vessel values
Vessel transaction activity
Ethylene shipbuilders
Countries building ethylene carriers
Forecast Ethylene fleet development
Forecast Ethylene fleet by size
Forecast Ethylene freight rates
List of Figures :-

Age profile of ethylene fleet
Ethylene fleet development
Newbuilding orders
Ethylene owners – current fleet and orderbook
Ethylene vessel values and freight rates
Ethylene freight rates
Fleet development
Ethylene fleet
Orderbook as % of fleet
Delivery schedule
Age profile of ethylene fleet
Ethylene fleet supply/demand balance
Ethylene capacity and production
Ethylene production
Ethylene capacity by region
South Korean ethylene statistics
Ethylene seaborne trade matrix, 2005
Ethylene seaborne trade matrix, 2005
Ethylene prices
Annual freight rates
Quarterly freight rates
Ethylene pools
Ethylene fleets by owner and average age
Investment activity
Vessel values
Orderbook by shipbuilder
Ethylene shipbuilding countries
Forecast fleet development
Freight rates & supply/demand balance
Age profile of Ethylene fleet and orderbook

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