Betting Update; Betfred Gold Cup from Sandown

April 26, 2007 - PRLog -- Formally known as ‘The Whitbread’ the race is steeped in history, but looking back over the last 10 runnings there are some interesting trends that leap off the page.

Statistics

•   10/10 – Ran no more than 45 days ago
•   8/10 – Ran no more than 25 days ago
•   8/10 – Carried 10-10 or less
•   6/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
•   9/10 – Trained in the UK
•   7/10 – Returned at a double-figure price
•   6/10 – Have been won by 7or8-year-olds
•   2/10 – Amount of times trainer Martin Pipe has won the race
•   2/10 – Amount of times trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race
•   5/10 – Favourites have finished unplaced
•   1/10 – Winning favourites
•   3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
•   4/10 – Ran at Aintree last time out

So lets look at the runners and try to discount as many as we can based on theses past stats. A massive 100% of the last 10 winners ran no more than 45 days ago, which puts a big negative against a few including the well-fancied Cornish Sett. If we take this trend a step further then within those 10 years 8 ran no less than 25 days ago, which further reduces the line –up with horses like Mon Mome, Fair Question and Wee Robbie all being knocked out.

Being a handicap another key pointer is the weight carried. Eight of the last 10 have won with no more than 10-10, so even though My Will, Juveigneur and Royal Auclair are the class acts they might just struggle with big weights to lump round.

The Irish have a poor record with only Jack High winning the race in the last decade. He lines up again along with Oodachee representing the Emerald Isle, so can be ruled out based of this stat.

Horses that ran well last time out are to be noted with 6/10 finishing in the top three in their previous run. If this trend is to be taken on trust this knocks out over half the field, including horses already with negatives like Mon Mome, Juveigneur and Fair Question.

So now with lines though almost the whole field this leaves us with three strong chances; Reveillez, Sweet Diversion and Hot Weld.

All have ticks in the right boxes according to age, days last ran and form, however with Reveillez looking to start as favourite and with only one jolly winning in the last 10 runnings this is against him, while many people have expressed doubts on him staying this trip after never running this far before.

This now leaves us with last weeks Scottish National winner Hot Weld, who is bidding for a unique double. His trainer Ferdy Murphy continues in cracking form and although some might think last week’s race will have taken a lot out of him, he’s lightly raced this season, loves this time of year, and will appreciate the ground.

With several entries Sweet Diversion looks to be one of Paul Nicholls lesser likes and is out of the handicap. But he's been running well most of the season, including a fair third last time out at Cheltenham and has won a race in April for the last two seasons.



Selection - Hot Weld e/w
Longshot - Sweet Diversion e/w  

ABOUT EASYODDS.COM

Easyodds.com is a comprehensive sport betting service that helps you find the BEST ODDS on offer from leading bookmakers, betting exchanges and spread betting firms and then helps you place your bet at the BestPrice.

FREE to register!
www.easyodds.com

Andrew Newton
Managing Editor
020 7691 0660

Website: www.easyodds.com?=PR