Ways2Capital Commodity Research Report 21 September 2015

Sept. 21, 2015 - PRLog -- MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

PRECIOUS METAL

✍GOLD

Gold rose to a two-week high on Friday as the Federal Reserve's decision to leave US interest rates unchanged weighed on the dollar and added to uncertainty over the timing of the first rate hike in a decade. Spot gold was up 0.5 per cent at $1,136.06 an ounce, having earlier touched $1,138.80, keeping it on track to snap a three-week losing streak.

Gold dropped from a two-week high on Friday, giving back some of the sharp gains from the last two days, as the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady this week added to uncertainty over the timing of an eventual rate hike.Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,127.70 an ounce at 0641 GMT, after climbing to a two-week high of $1,133.20 in the previous session. Still, the metal was on track to snap a three-week losing streak with a near 2-percent gain.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in a bow to worries about the global economy, financial market volatility and sluggish inflation at home. But the US central bank maintained its bias towards a rate hike sometime this year.Gold had been weighed down all year on uncertainty over when the Fed would hike interest rates from record-lows. Higher rates could dent demand for non-interest paying bullion, while boosting the dollar.

Weakness in the dollar and stock markets could prompt a rally in gold prices in the near term but the gains are unlikely to last, "Because the Fed has made clear that it intends to raise rates by year-end, the markets will eventually start bidding the dollar higher and we could see gold's up move to be relatively short-lived," he said.The Fed on Thursday also forecast inflation would creep only slowly toward its 2 percent target, which one bullion trader said was a negative for gold, often seen as an inflation-hedge.The Fed is due to hold two more policy meets this year, in October and December.A majority of Wall Street's top banks now expect the Fed to begin hiking rates in December, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Thursday.The dollar nursed losses on Friday after slumping to a three-week low against a basket of major currencies in the previous session.Physical demand from Asia wasn't offering much support to gold prices.Gold discounts in India, the world's second-biggest consumer, widened this week as dealers struggled to offload stocks amid sluggish demand.Chinese premiums held steady at $5-$6 despite the overnight jump in prices, but failed to boost global prices.

✍ SILVER

MCX Silver July as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 37,923 levels and at the same day it made a low of 37,549 levels. Late on as expected prices could not able to sustain on lower levels and rallied sharply towards the weekly high of 40,130 levels. This week prices have closed above the previous week’s closing of 37,935 levels and finally closed 5.31% higher at 39,951 levels. Technically prices have formed “Big Bullish candlestick” which indicates further strength.

For the next week we expect silver prices to find support in the range of 39,000 – 39,200 levels. Trading consistently below 39,000 levels would lead towards the strong support at 38,200 levels and then finally towards the major support at 37,500 levels. Resistance is now observed in the range of 40,800 – 41,000 levels. Trading consistently above 41,000 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 41,600 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at 42,500 levels.

ENERGY

✍ CRUDE OIL

CrudeOil prices dipped early on Friday on fresh signs the Middle East will continue to prioritize market share over prices, while the United States kept interest rates at historic lows on worries over the health of the global economy.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $46.70 per barrel at 0049 GMT, down 20 cents from their last settlement. Brent prices were little changed at $49.14 per barrel.Kuwait, a key producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on Thursday that the oil market would balance itself but that this would take time, indicating support for the producer group's policy of defending market share despite falling prices.This view was confirmed by sources at OPEC who said they expected oil prices to rise by no more than $5 a barrel a year to reach $80 by 2020, with a slowing in rival non-OPEC production growth not enough to absorb the current oil glut.The lower prices came despite the US Fed keeping interest rates at historic lows.

weaker dollar would provide some support to crude prices, as it makes dollar-traded crude cheaper for countries using other currencies."With the Fed on hold and a weaker dollar, support should return to commodity markets," ANZ bank said.Some traders disagreed. "It's the Fed's thinking behind holding rates that spooked us more than the impact of a weaker dollar. They kept rates low because they worry about the health of the global economy. That makes me worry about global oil demand.

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