Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 4 august 2015

1. The European Union's statistics office Euro stat said on Friday that consumer prices in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose by 0.2 percent year-on-year in July, as in June.
By: ways2capital
 
INDORE, India - Aug. 4, 2015 - PRLog -- MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS


The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said on Friday that consumer prices in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose by 0.2 percent year-on-year in July, as in June.

China needs to ensure that risks presented by a slowing economy do not morph into social risks, the state planner said on Friday, acknowledging the problems the country faces should unemployment rise

The U.S. labor costs in the second quarter recorded their smallest increase in 33 years as workers earned less in commissions and bonuses, in what appeared to be a temporary wage growth setback against the backdrop of diminishing labor market slack. 

OPEC oil output reached the highest monthly level in recent history in July, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as Saudi Arabia and other key members show no sign of wavering in their focus on defending market share instead of prices. 

GOLD

Gold continues to show the negative trend. Gold August contract is bearish for both short term and intra day at India's MCX. Gold has fallen back again after a brief recovery earlier this week which ended its worst losing streak in 20 years, after the Federal Reserve hinted at a rate rise in the near future pushed the dollar towards fresh multi-year highs.

Federal Reserve rate-setters voted as expected on Thursday to keep rates on hold, but a shift in language in its statement fuelled speculation that its increasingly hawkish stance will lead to a hike at its next meeting in September. Despite ostensibly maintaining an equivocal position, the suggestion that risks to the economy are "nearly balanced" spurred markets and pushed the dollar up towards the high watermark reached earlier this year. Gold is quoted in dollars and a positive move in the greenback tends to put downward pressure on prices as it reduces buying power.

CRUDE OIL

Short term trend for MCX Crude Oil August contract is likely to be bearish. For intraday positive trend can be expected, Support for short term is at 2800 and resistance at 3250,

MCX Crude Oil August contract has been trading down by -0.32per cent to 3138 level at 10.52am on Thursday.Oil prices rose Wednesday on unexpected declines in U.S. crude-oil supplies and production. Prices have slumped this month on renewed fears that the global glut of crude oil could last longer than investors initially expected.

This comes as production in the U.S. and elsewhere continues to exceed consumption. Wednesday's data offered some hints that the oversupply of crude oil is starting to shrink, but analysts warned that the trend might not continue and prices could resume their decline.

Though refineries processed less crude into gasoline and other fuels compared with the week before, crude-oil inventories still declined due to a drop in imports and production. U.S. crude-oil production fell by 145,000 barrels a day to 9.4 million barrels a day, the largest one-week decline since October 2013. Excluding Alaska, which saw a small rise in output, the drop totaled 151,000 barrels a day.

Softer economic data out of Europe and China may indicate weak demand growth in the next couple of months. A Senate panel has approved energy legislation that would lift the 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports and open some areas of the Outer Continental Shelf to oil and gas exploration.

Oil futures finished lower Thursday, with U.S. prices logging their first loss in three sessions as pressure from strength in the U.S. dollar outweighed support from recent data showing sizable weekly declines in crude supplies and production.They were still poised for a weekly gain following Wednesday’s spike on news of weekly declines in both U.S. crude production and inventories.

COPPER

Copper slipped on Thursday, weighed down by a firmer dollar after the U.S. FederalReserve set the scene for a possible interest rate rise and on jitters about China after itsstock market retreated.

China shares fell again on Thursday after a report that banks were trying to get to grips with their financial exposure to the stock market slump in June. A rise in LME copper inventories for the second straight day highlighted oversupply in the global market for the metal, used in construction and power. However, in a sign consumer demand in China was brightening, bonded copper premiums jumped by $10 to $85, before steadying on Thursday, taking premiums up to the highest since mid-March.

Nickel also pressured by oversupply closed down after LME stocks rose again. x The Dollar Index extended gains against the other major currencies on Thursday,

after data showing that U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter added expectations for a rate hike later this year. The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domesticproduct expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in the three months to June. First quarter growth was revised up to 0.6% from a previously reported contraction of 0.2%. The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed a decline in the inventory levels of Aluminum, Lead and Zinc on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Copper and Nickel stocks rose on Wednesday. The weekly inventory data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed a decline in the inventory levels of Lead and Zinc. Inventories of Copper, Aluminum and Nickel increased last week. Copper and Nickel ended lower on Thursday on MCX, tracking weak overseas prices.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

AGRI UPDATE

Agri markets staged a moderate recovery as firmness was seen for Spices, Guar and Oil complex after the recent huge dips.Crude Oil recovery supported market sentiments for Guar that had fallen a lot over last few months; Chana too recovered on lower stocks.

Chana rates kept finding strong support at these levels on improved demand. Better sowing reports limited the uptrend however. Rates did find support from lower production, low stocks and improved demand.

Spices firmed up as demand started rising at these very low levels; Oil complex rates found very strong support at these lower levels and supported further by recovery in International markets.


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