Bonhomie with Pak May Sour Relations

NEW DELHI - May 19, 2015 - PRLog -- According to an item published in the latest issue of Indian Military Review  Russia and India have systematically increased their cooperation in the military and military-technical cooperation spheres in 2014, within the ‘privileged strategic partnership’ the two countries share. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation detailed this cooperation in its Annual Report on Activities for 2014, posted on the Ministry’s official website.

Giving details, the new issue of Indian Military Review, published from Gurgaon said, “Against the background of anti-Russian sanctions pressure, being imposed by the West, Moscow continued to increase cooperation with countries in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR),” the report noted. “The main focus was placed on this cooperation leading to a positive impact on Russia’s regions, and in particular the Far East and Siberia.”

According to the report, on December 11, 2014, during the annual Russia-India Summit, in New Delhi, the new Indian leadership reaffirmed the country’s commitment to intensify bilateral relations.

“As part of the implementation of the flagship project in the energy sector – the construction of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in India – the first energy block was connected to the electricity grid of the country, and work on the second block is continuing. Military and military-technical cooperation also grew steadily; in Russia, joint exercises were held by all branches of the Indian armed forces, and the aircraft carrier Vikramaditya (earlier the Admiral Gorshkov) entered into service in the Indian Navy,” the Foreign Ministry report said.

Pak-Russian Bonhomie

India may not officially give its take ever on this, but it is one development which won't go down well with the Indian government and won't be good for Indo-Russian relationship: the decision of Russia and Pakistan to hold joint military exercises first time ever.

The question is will India formally react to the Russia-Pakistan bonhomie? If it does and the Ministry of External Affairs issues a formal statement, though unlikely as per this writer's understanding, how will India react? Will India react like a jilted lover or will India be more understanding and react like a mature friend?

There are two ways of looking at the increasing bonhomie between Moscow and Islamabad. One is the emotive way of bilateral relations which have traditionally been very warm though the two sides have not made much song and dance about it. The other is the cold strategic calculus and fast changing geopolitics.

On the emotional plane of bilateral relations, India may act like a possessive spouse and howl at Russia being wooed by a new suitor, Pakistan. A discernible chill has set in Indo-Russian relations. This is visible from the declining bilateral trade which was below $10 billion last year and is likely to tumble further this year. This is despite the fact that the two sides had vowed to raise their bilateral trade to $20 billion in 2015!

But then Russia itself cannot escape the blame for this state of affairs. True, Russians were miffed over the fact that Indian defence import orders were drying up and the United States edged past Russia last year to become India's largest armament exporter. But that doesn't mean that Russia should lift its embargo on sale of weaponry to Pakistan as it did last year.

The decision of Russia and Pakistan to hold joint military exercises is nothing in comparison to the much bigger red rag the Russians waved at India last year. Sergey Chemezov, the head of Rostec Corporation, inexplicably went on record saying last year that Russia was open to military-technological cooperation with Pakistan and the negotiations on the sales of Mi-35 multipurpose military transport helicopters to that country were already underway.

The other way of looking at increasing bonhomie between Russia and Pakistan is the fast-changing strategic matrix in the region.

Russia knows the importance of Pakistan as American and NATO troops have already started pulling out of Afghanistan. By next year end, Afghanistan will be completely on its own. Pakistan has been playing the waiting game for long and biding for its time.

Russia wants to keep Pakistan in good humour and needs Pakistan's services in Afghanistan, something that China has been doing for decades