Richard Rousseau: worldwide fresh water scarcity may lead to regional conflicts

May 14, 2015 - PRLog -- Fresh water scarcity exacerbated by growing demand may lead to increased worldwide tensions in the future, and the international community must act now to prevent local conflicts and interstate rows, says Richard Rousseau, political economy and geopolitics researcher, Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences at the American University of Ras Al Khaimah, UAE, in his article “The Growing Potential for Water Wars” published in the foreign media.

According to him, the world states finally began to understand the vital importance and strategic value of water resources in late 20th – early 21st century, while in some countries such as Jordan and Istrael it grew critical.

“Water has clearly become a scarce resource in a growing number of regions. The use, ownership of and access to water give rise to tensions which will only be exacerbated as time goes on. The Middle East and Africa are the regions of greatest concern in this respect: it is estimated that 40 countries in these regions will suffer from water insecurity or scarcity by 2025. [...] It is already foreseeable that tensions over water will increase at a faster rate over time than they did in the first decade of the 21st century,” the expert writes.

According to him, the signs of situation growing critical is also seen in the diplomacy between the states with scarce fresh water reserves.

“There have been a collection of peace or cooperation agreements [in the Middle East] proposed or ratified in recent years which are directly or indirectly related to water sharing,” stresses the Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences at the American University of Ras Al Khaimah.

In his opinion, the fresh water scarcity was caused by two factors. Firstly, population growth and rising per-capita consumption caused a boost in demand for water in energy, industry and water production areas, while water supply rates were stagnating or decreasing. Secondly, the situation took a turn for the worse in the last few years due to full-scale pollution of surface and underground water sources with agricultural chemicals, as well as household and industrial waste.

From the expert’s point of view, yet another difficulty is the lack of a concrete regulatory framework and precedent base for resolving trans-boundary water-related disputes, even though the demand in such measures has grown immensely.

“For example, Egypt and Sudan were for many years in dispute over the construction of the Merowe Dam in Sudan before it was finally inaugurated on March 3, 2009. Egypt maintained that the dam would affect the Nile river basin downstream,” points out the author, adding that a similar situation has taken place in the Southeast Asia where China is actively building new hydropower dams on the local rivers.

According to him, there are currently several water resources distribution strategies, ranging from using them as a state wishes to negotiating equal access and use, but they are mostly imperfect, and thus the causes for tensions will remain.

“Are violent conflicts over water probable in the future? Historical experience suggests that the likelihood is low. However, many contemporary specialists contend that in the mid and long term such conflicts will increasingly emerge in many places and make the world as a whole more inflammable,” Richard Rousseau thinks.

From his point of view, fresh water deficit in and of itself very rarely caused any large-scale global disputes during the last few centuries, but very frequently led to local clashes, still a possibility at present.

“Water shortages could boost food imports. In 2015, nearly half the world’s population relies on the global market to secure its food supply. How states with a high national debt and poorly endowed with water can generate enough revenues to finance these food imports will become a crucial issue. Second, competition for water will mount: between urban and rural communities, between agricultural and household consumption and between countries. Fast urbanization, which is taking place in the great majority of developing countries, will exacerbate this competition,” writes the geopolitical analyst.

He adds that the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development issued warnings that local water conflicts may potentially grow into large-scale crises with potentially irreversible consequences.

Because of that, the expert suggests, the nations affected by fresh water scarcity should unite under a multilateral and mutually beneficial union and undertake series of effective measures by investing in the development of infrastructure for water procurement, transportation and sanitation.

“New distribution systems, such as long-distance pipeline and water transport tankers, could come into operation. The construction of desalination plants may also contribute to water resource conservation, although to date this technology has been prohibitively expensive and thus mainly confined to states with surplus energy supplies. The importation of water, as in Singapore, may thus become the only viable solution,” the researcher states.

In his opinion, this can be largely achieved through reforms of the agricultural sector responsible for 70% of water consumption volumes worldwide.

“In countries like Egypt and Uzbekistan the latest advances in water conservation, the abandonment of crops requiring intensive watering, or water supply from neighboring states may be reasonable, yet difficult, solutions to implement,” Richard Rousseau concludes.

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