Scientists Predict 93% Chance of Failure for KXL Pipeline Policy

INDIANAPOLIS - Dec. 5, 2014 - PRLog -- Investigators at the Center of Analysis of Science in Policy have developed and employed a powerful and innovative scientific approach to determining the probability that a policy will  achieve the goals stated in the text. The method, Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) was applied to HR 4286 (American Energy Renaissance Act of 2014). The analysis revealed that there is a 0.07% probability of the bill’s meeting the desired goals; or, to put it another way, the bill has about a 93% chance of producing unanticipated consequences. The specific section that concerns the Keystone XL pipeline (KXL) shows a much lower chance of success (vide infra).

Historically, it has been impossible to forecast the effectiveness of a policy. Our lack of predictive skills has meant, all too often, that unintended consequences outnumber the anticipated goals. Recent application of knowledge theory has led to development of IPA, the first scientific method for quantifying the probability of success of a policy and, conversely, its failure.

IPA provides a scientific, non-partisan evaluation to quantify the potential for success along with opportunities for improvement. It is not the intent to suggest that any specific recommendations of the bill might be right or wrong, good or bad. Instead, the focus is on whether the policy will have the effects anticipated according to the text of the bill.

Application of IPA during document creation allows all sides an objective view of the strong and weak components, helping to overcome partisan disputes and keeping discussion focused on the beneficial elements. Once a bill is enacted and a policy is in force, any problems that appear can have their origins traced through IPA, allowing for corrections to be made “en route” and allowing us to learn how to make better policies overall. These principles apply not only to legislation but to a wide range of extra-governmental documents and ensuing policies.

IPA considers the individual concepts and the logical connections between the concepts as a whole. In evaluating HR 4286 (including the KXL pipeline = currently a matter of considerable interest), the bill was found to have a fairly large number of discrete concepts (27), but those concepts have a very low level of connection; the relationships of the concepts to one another, is a mere 0.07 on a scale of zero to one. This suggests that the bill has only about a seven percent (7%) chance of attaining its stated goals and a 93% chance of failing. Or, to put it another way, the bill will likely achieve only seven percent of its intended goals. And, we may expect that those benefits will be lost in the 93% chance of serious unintended consequences. The section concerning the KXL Pipeline contains only six concepts. Clearly too few to reflect a useful breadth of understanding for such a complex issue.

HR 4286 has a vast breadth with significant implications for energy, economics, the environment, civil rights, and other areas. Given the large scope of the bill, it seems reasonable to suggest that the unanticipated consequences will be of much greater range than the desired results. For more detailed information on the methodology, please see the SciPolicy.org Watchdog White Paper.

Forecasting the ability of a policy to achieve its stated goals during development enables policy makers to more readily agree on divisive issues. It is now easier to find another route to avoid partisan gridlock.

Franklin D. Nash, MD
Steven E. Wallis, PhD
Bernadette Wright, PhD
Center for Analysis of Science in Policy
http://www.scipolicy.org