MCX Weekly report By Ways2Capital 24 Nov 2014

The minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday reflected a complex discussion at the U.S. central bank. Staff cut their estimates for nea
By: Ways2Capital
 
INDORE, India - Nov. 26, 2014 - PRLog -- ✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

The minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday reflected a complex discussion at the U.S. central bank. Staff cut their estimates for near-term U.S. economic growth, and Fed policymakers wrestled with the pros and cons of acknowledging market turbulence and overseas developments in their statement.

A solid core of officials said the Fed needed to remain vigilant that public and market expectations about inflation could shift down - a worrisome development that might increase the risk of a damaging period of stagnation or outright declines in wages and prices. The soft pace of inflation has become a central concern at the Fed and other major central banks.

U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell in October, but a jump in permits to near a 6-1/2-year high suggested the housing market was steadily regaining strength.

The head of the Bank of Japan warned on Wednesday that the government is solely responsible for maintaining trust in the country's finances, in a thinly veiled show of discontent over premier Shinzo Abe's decision to postpone a sales tax increase.

BoE Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's Nov. 5-6 meeting showed its members voted 7-2 for the fourth month in a row to maintain rates at their record low 0.5 percent, where they have been since early 2009 when the financial crisis was raging.

PRECIOUS METALS

Silver edged down 0.2 percent at $16.12 an ounce. GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters said on Tuesday that silver demand would fall 7 percent in 2014 because of a slower pace of buying by jewelers and industrial fabricators. Demand for silver will post a 7 percent decline in 2014 because of a slower pace of buying by jewelers and industrial fabricators in the first three quarters of the year, metals consultant Thomson Reuters GFMS said on Tuesday. Harmonized European sales tax rates that started in January have driven up retail silver investment product prices, reducing demand on the continent, the Thomson Reuters unit said in an interim market review. Silver industrial demand is forecast to drop 1.8 percent as the electronics sector keeps shifting to cheaper metals. Jewelry consumption should fall 4.4 percent because retailers are pushing more gold products to take advantage of lower bullion prices, GFMS said.

Gold fell more than 1 percent in choppy trade on Wednesday after a poll showed weaker support among Swiss voters for a referendum that would force the central bank to boost its gold reserves. Bullion also came under pressure after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's late October policy meeting showed policymakers were concerned about weakening inflation pressure, dampening the metal's appeal as a hedge. The metal's price slid as much as 1.8 percent after the opinion poll showed support for the Swiss gold proposal slipped to 38 percent from 44 percent in October, dashing hopes that the Swiss National Bank needed to buy gold in the open market.

BASE METAL

Copper rose on Wednesday, supported by signs of physical supply tightness and hopes for another wave of stimulus in Japan and Europe. Longer term however, the market is still expected to move into surplus next year, with analysts polled by Reuters in October pegging the excess supply versus demand at 350,000 tonnes next year. News of a snap election and a delayed tax increase in Japan bolstered hopes for new stimulus measures, while the European Central Bank president said it was ready for more action if current efforts do not speed up the euro zone recovery. Nickel was the biggest LME mover, closing 3.2 percent higher at $16,145, having earlier hit its highest level in a month at $16,300, as some investors bet on shortages developing next year.

ENERGY

Oil prices fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, as early gains on talk of a possible OPEC output cut vanished after the Federal Reserve released minutes of last month's policy meeting revealing worries that U.S. inflation could remain below target for "quite some time." The Fed minutes showed central bankers concerned about the economy's strength but reluctant to issue a statement reflecting too much pessimism. OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, will meet in Vienna to consider adjusting its output target of 30 million bpd. Fears of an oil glut and a 30 percent drop in Brent prices since June has made a few producers clamor for sharp output cuts. But OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia has not said if it will support that. U.S. crude stockpiles rose 2.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 14, compared with forecasts of a 800,000-barrel draw, as imports rose to meet demand from refineries hiking runs after seasonal maintenance, data from the Energy Information Administration(EIA) showed. Despite the unexpectedly large build, oil prices rose by midday as investors focused on the OPEC meeting. Unseasonably cold weather across America, and a 2-million barrel draw in distillate supplies last week, also supported prices of U.S. heating oil before late profit-taking inthat market.

U.S. natural gas futures ended up 3 percent on Wednesday on forecasts that colder-than-normal weather will continue through at least early December, keeping heating demand high. Earlier Wednesday, front-month prices were up over 6 percent, continuing the recent trend of big price swings seen over the past few weeks due primarily to changes in how much cold is expected in the 15-day weather forecast. The latest U.S. weather models showed arctic weather would continue over the next two weeks in the lower 48 states, with 377 heating degree days, down a bit from 385 forecast on Tuesday. But that is still well over normal HDDs of 330 for this time of year, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics. Analysts estimated utilities withdrew 12 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week, the first draw of the heating season. That compares with a 40-bcf build the previous week, a draw of 36 bcf in the same week last year, and a five-year average draw of 10 bcf.

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