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Gladiator Finance's Economic & Global Market News 7 July 2014
Europe indexes opened slightly lower today as Asian markets remained flat despite positive data out of the US late last week.
Even with a short trading week the US markets still managed record closes for both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. News on unemployment buoyed the local markets late last week as better than forecast data saw unemployment drop from 6.4% to 6.1% and 288,000 nonfarm jobs being added in June. This saw the S&P have its 24th record close and post a 7% increase YTD. The Dow Jones also broke 17,000 for the first time ever seeing 2.6% growth in 2014. This week starts off the next earnings season and a recent Reuters poll predicts earnings to have increased 6.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2014 with the substantial growth for the 3rd at 10.9% and 4th quarter at 11.9% closing out what will be, if forecasts are correct, one of the best years in recent history.
Markets in Asian are waiting on a range of data out of China this week. Predominantly, data on trade, import and exports and inflation will be released and should give some indication as how well the local governments stimulus plans have started to take effect. This along with the Bank of Japan confirming that the Japanese economies performance is recovering, al be it moderately should help the region keep to the gains it too has seen lately. The Nikkei is notoriously susceptible to corrections in the US markets and should data out of the US keep to positive territory the local market in Japan should see the benefits also.
European markets are a mixed bag as we enter the 2nd quarter and since the ECB's latest comments imply no further action till next year, they will probably be driven more by economic indicators than any policy changes. With contradictions seen last week regarding business and its growth for the region, Markit seeing new orders rise their fastest in 3 years and the Economic Cycle Research Institute seeing inflationary pressure not seen as high for over 2 years this week will be worth watching as investor sentiment will be released and next week sees data on industrial production for the region which is always closely watched.
This week has the potential to blow the skeptics away with continued growth seen around the globe, or alternatively we could start to see the beginnings of a correction that would take the entire markets gains of 2014 and see them disappear in the space of a few days as commodities break their current highs.
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