Thungen Financial 12th June 2014 - Global Economic Data Pre-View
Markets globally slowed their gains yesterday amidst renewed fighting in Iraq and the World Bank revising its growth forecast for emerging markets for 2014. Looking at new figure of 4.8% growth as opposed to the original 5.3% would see the third year in a row that the emerging economies had grown less than 5% per year. It's not all bad news however as they forecast the developed economies to expand by 5.5% for both 2015 and 2016 and emerging economies are to pick up where they were before by 2016.
Asian markets were quiet today as the Bank of Japan hold a policy meeting and the region waits for economic data from China tomorrow on Retail Sales and Industrial Production. Retail Sales are expected to be slightly down, adding weight to concerns that domestic demand is slowing. The reverse can be said for Industrial Production however as this is forecast to have increased over April's figures and would confirm the export data released earlier in the week. The Chinese also announce additional stimulus to infrastructure in the Yangtze region. China has been trying to pull the inland provinces closer to Shanghai and in doing so would greatly boost the local economy in that region.
Tomorrow see's the release of the Eurozone Industrial Production data. With several EU members seeing increased industrial production over the last few months this is forecast to be substantially higher and will no doubt help ease concerns after the ECB's policy change on interest rates last week. On Friday the Balance of Trade for the EU is announced and analysts forecast this to be significantly lower at €10.9bn. Despite this, the majority of the markets in the EU checked their gains and it was no surprise to see lower volumes as the week drew on. With the range of economic data being released over the next few days, we will most likely see a relatively steady close to the week as Europe starts to ramp up for Summer.
It is a big end to the week in the US as a whole host of data is released today and tomorrow. For the first time in three weeks the S&P 500 took a noticeable dip and the other indexes followed suit. For the past few weeks we have been told that the economy in the US is past recovery and is now seeing expansion. Later today we will see whether this is still the case as Retail Sale, Business Inventories and Import and Export Price Index data is released. Retail Sales are seen to be up and if they are, this would indeed backup the data we have seen of late and look to confirm the turnaround in the US economy. Friday see's Core PPI figures and should end the week in the US on a positive note. One blip in a run of record closes shouldn't bring the Bears too close to the forefront and if analyst predictions are correct, next week could see a continuation of the Bull run of late.
Asian Markets as of 12th June 2014:
Nikkei 14,966.93 -0.68% SSE Comp. 2,051.78 -0.15%
Hang Seng 23,181.68 -0.33%
ASX 5,413.00 -0.56%
European Markets as of 12th June 2014
FTSE 6,838.87 -0.50% Dax 9,949.81 -0.79%
CAC40 4,555.11 -0.87%
BEL20 3,178.17 +0.56% Zurich SMI 8,712.09 -0.47%
MICEX 1,499.11 +8.04%
US Markets as of 12th June 2014
S&P500 1,943.89 -0.35% Dow Jones 16,843.88 -0.60%
NASDAQ 4,331.93 -0.14%
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DISCLAIMER The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed on this service are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Thungen Financial Advisors. All market data within this release is for your general information and enjoys indicative status only. Thungen Financial Advisors does not accept any responsibility for its accuracy or for any use to which it may be put. All share prices and market indexes delayed at least 15 minutes. 52 week high and low values are calculated from close price data.