Liberals historically fall for the old “historic breakthrough”
The consensus is that President Obama does not believe Iran can be stopped without war, and he does not want to go to war. Some believe Obama wants a nuclear Iran as a counterforce to the U.S. military complex and Israel. Many believe it is a done deal, Iran will get a bomb.
Iran has thousands of centrifuges that can enrich uranium to a weapons grade level in a few months. Interim deals with Iran make it difficult for Israel to attack without coming across as the bad guy. Iran’s plan seems to be to talk and run out the clock until they go nuclear. It appears members of Congress are unlikely to risk the blame of torpedoing the talks by increasing sanctions on Iran.
Israel seems to be the only nation left to stop Iran’s progress towards obtaining nuclear weapons. If talks with Iran continue into the winter, poor visibility could make an Israel attack difficult. Some authorities believe if Israel is going to make its move, it must attack within the next six months. Otherwise, Iran will be a nuclear nation by the Spring of 2015.
Israel Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon recently shifted his view and is now likely to support a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran, in light of his assessment that the Obama administration will not use military force.
Ever since the interim accord between Iran and the six powers was reached, Israel Prime Minister, Netanyahu has stressed that Israel will not consider itself bound by it. In the last few weeks, as talks on a permanent accord have resumed, Netanyahu has upped his rhetoric on the Iranian issue, and is again making implied threats about a possible unilateral Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites.
Former Israeli defense-intelligence chief Amos Yadlin recently stated Israel is coming to the fork in the road where they have to choose very tough alternatives between the ‘bomb’ or the ‘bombing’. He stated if Iran did not agree to stop its nuclear program Israel would have to take action.
Under Israeli law, war must be approved by its full cabinet of approximately 33 members. But an inner circle of the security cabinet can give a green-light for a limited military “mission” of taking out nuclear facilities. Netanyahu enjoys a hawkish majority in both cabinets, especially since it appears the U.S. will not use military force to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons.
There are reports that Saudi Arabia is concerned about Iran’s nuclear program and has given Israel fly over rights to attack Iran. Sunni Arabs and Iranian Shiites have their own struggle going in the Middle East.
Israel has held war games that include in-air refueling of warplanes in preparation for any future long-range bombing attacks. Critics who believe Israel cannot destroy Iran’s underground enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz are ignoring Israel’s bunker buster low-yield nuclear bombs. These weapons can be used to destroy hardened, underground bunkers buried deep in the ground. The amount of radioactive nuclear fallout would be reduced from a standard air-burst nuclear detonation because of relatively low yield detonation close to or underground. The German magazine Der Spiegel has revealed Israel has armed its German supplied, Dolphin-class submarines with nuclear tipped cruise missiles.
The United States is set to join the other members of the six-power negotiating group known as the P5+1 – Great Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia – plus Iran for a full round of negotiations June 16-20 in Vienna. The talks are coordinated by European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton
Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said Israel had hoped the U.S. would stop Iran’s nuclear program. However, he now believes President Obama would prefer to pass the hot potato to his successor. If possible, to next year, or the next president. Ya’alon said he has changed his mind. He now believes Israel can not depend on outside help, and must defend itself.
For more information on the Middle East crisis and the war of worldviews see:
Dr. Stephen Johnston
Dr. Stephen Johnston