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The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Show Improvement
Data from Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Economics and from its National Bank (central bank) continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy.
The four variables used to calculate the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index) are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate. A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which for May 2014 comes from March 2014 data. The current reading of the Index is 113.1, up from 111.0 in April (October 2013 = 100). No variables negatively affected the Index for this reading.
The March 2014 GDP growth rate continued steadily, according to the Ministry of Economics. Deposits at commercial banks in the country in March increased 0.7 percent from the levels in February 2014, reversing a half-percent decrease seen in February and reflecting continued confidence in the banking system, as shown by growth from February to March in time deposits with longer maturities. International reserves at the National Bank increased by nearly 1 percent, making up part of the decrease seen from February to March in the wake of the depreciation of the ruble and tenge. This is consistent with the recovered steadiness in the exchange rate of the som, which stabilized at an average of 1.835 US cents in March after the slight volatility at the time of the depreciations of the currencies of trading partners in February, when the value of the som swung by nearly one-tenth of a US cent over the course of the month.
Overall, the CAP KMI Index suggests a continued positive outlook for business conditions in Kyrgyzstan.
About the Central Asia Prospect
The Central Asia Prospect is website where Dr. Gary Roseman writes about the development of Central Asia and promotes the area’s business and investment opportunities. The focus is on countries in the traditionally defined Central Asian region - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. www.centralasiaprospect.com
About Dr. Gary Roseman
Dr. Roseman worked with investment projects in Uzbekistan and worked on research projects in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. He taught economics in the US, Russia (Irkutsk and Vladivostok)
Central Asia Prospect
Central Asia Prospect