It’s looking good so far for Winter 2014/15 in the West!
April 10, 2014 Forecast
ENSO, which are disruptive winds, known as wind shear, often develop off the Atlantic coast of the United States and sweep over a large part of the basin during El Niño these fluctuations are known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. The ENSO neutral continued during March 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as near the International Date Line. The SSTs were below average in the Niño1+2 region, near average but rising in Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region.
A significant down welling oceanic Kelvin wave that was initiated in January greatly increased the oceanic heat content to the largest March value in the historical record back to 1979, and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific. Also during March, low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the central equatorial Pacific.
Although these atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively reflect ENSO-neutral, they also reflect a clear evolution toward an El Niño state. The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño this year compared with last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral will persist through much of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with many models predicting the development of El Niño sometime during the summer or fall.
While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, and exceed 50% by the summer.
The chart does not lie. Things are building to the perfect El Nino conditions for an awesome Winter in the West for 2014/15.
Many thanks to NOAAA/National Weather Service for this information.
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