6th May 2014 - Chinese Economic Special
Global Market Data as of 6th May 2014
FTSE 100 6,822.42 (+0.20%) Dax 9,529.50 (-0.28%)
CAC 40 4,462.69 (+0.10%) BEL 20 3,089.06 (-0.54%)
Madrid IBEX 10,477.00 (+0.02%) Zurich SMI 8,409.07 (-0.40%)
Moscow MCIEX 1,295.43 (+1.14%) Sydney ASX 5,462.70 (+0.35%)
Nikkei 225 14,457.51 (-0.19%) Closed
Hang Seng 21,976.33 (-1.28%) Closed
Shang SSE Comp 2,027.35 (+0.05%) Closed
Dow Jones 16,530.55 (+0.11%) NASDAQ 4,138.06 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,884.66 (+0.19%)
With the Chinese, Korean and Japanese markets closed today for various holidays the remaining Asian markets opened higher off the back of good data out of the US. Data from the Institute for Supply Management Services Sector Index showed the fastest expansion seen in 8mths of 55.2 helping the local indexes in the US post gains which are expected to help Europe open higher too.
Chinese Economic Special
There are a whole host of economic factors out of China later this week and as a pre-emptive look, today we follow a Reuters polls of 18 economists and their forecasts for what we should expect to see.
Starting with Trade Surplus data, which for last month was significantly reduced by poor export and import figures. The surplus is expected to have increased to $13.9bn for April. An increase of almost $4bn from March. With imports and export figures getting back up to speed after the long New Year celebrations figures for April Exports were down 1.7% on the year before, better than the 6.6% they fell in March. Imports fared better with a slowdown of 2.3% as opposed the 11.3% seen in March.
Consumer inflation is expected to have dropped again down to 2.00% from 2.4% in March. The producers index is seen lower, in fact the this has been falling for 26mths straight but at 1.8% down is marginally better than the 2.3% seen in March. Retails Sales should report similar data as last month with an expected increase of 12.2%.
Industrial Output should see more growth albeit almost identical as last month. Marches 8.8% was well received and so will the projected 8.9% seen for April. This along with Fixed Asset Investment which is also expected to have increase slightly from 17.6% in March to 17.7% for April.
All in all the 18 economists involved in the poll generally agreed that the 2nd largest economy is still showing signs of recovery. With the government looking to boost infrastructure by way of improving rail links and facilities and extended tax benefits for small to medium businesses, what was initially seen as very small steps may be enough to keep the Chinese economy on the right tracks, if you forgive the pun.
China trade data is expected Thursday with inflation figures on Friday and activities data arriving the following Tuesday.
With a positive outlook markets should remain strong this week and if the data is anywhere near what is forecast we should see a continued good run for the remainder of the week.
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