The website looked at divisional contests in which a slight home favorite (of less than three points) is coming off a victory, while its opponent is looking to come back from a loss in its last game.
The winning wager has been for bettors to go against that home team. During more than 16 years of NFL contests, this trend has resulted in 22 victories in 31 games.
On Sunday, the trend will be tested for the first time since the 2011 season when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North matchup. The Steelers are two-point favorites, and are coming off the team’s first victory of the season in a 19-6 win over the New York Jets. The Ravens dropped a 19-17 decision last week to the Green Bay Packers.
During that 2011 season, there were five games that fit the parameters, and resulted in four victories, including two on the final day of the regular season.
The Steelers-Ravens game has a total of 40.5 points, a number that still works in favor of those who use this trend. That’s because there have been 19 games that have had a total of less than 43, and 13 of those game have been winners for those who wagered against the home team in those circumstances.
Visit http://www.vegasexperts.com for more information on sports handicapping.