Solution near to debt deal and Iran crisis

BROOKINGS, Ore. - Oct. 14, 2013 - PRLog -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) smells blood and appears to want to destroy the Republicans and take back the House of Representatives in the 2014 mid-term elections. He proposes an additional $1.1 trillion in the debt limit until December 2014, after the Nov. 4 elections. Harry Reid seems to believe the Democrats are winning at the polls because public opinion opposes damaging the U.S. credit rating.

House Republicans are willing to increase the debt ceiling for a short time with no spending cuts, if Democrats are willing to negotiate entitlement reform and spending cuts. The final compromise will probably be a longer term increase in debt limit with an agreement to talk about spending cuts.

President Obama appears to want to negotiate with Iran over their nuclear program until he is out of office. He apparently believes Iran will not be capable of mounting miniaturized nuclear warheads on long range ICBMs until his term in office is completed.  Some foreign affairs experts believe Obama has thrown Israel under the buss by negotiating directly with Iran President Hassan Rouhani. It is difficult for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to maintain the threat of military action when Iran is allowed to negotiate for years while they continue to enrich uranium and build thousands of centrifuges. They will soon have the capacity to make a breakout to weapons grade enriched uranium within weeks.

In February, 2013 North Korea detonated what is described as a “lighter, miniaturized atomic warhead”. Weapons analysts fear a dramatic advance in North Korea’s nuclear missile technology may cause Iran’s one year lag to develop an enriched uranium bomb to dissolve into a present danger. Iran and North Korea trade information and technology in regards to missiles and nuclear warheads.

In fact, it is possible Iran technology enabled North Korea’s push to miniaturize its warheads. Iran has purportedly run computer modeling of implosion, compression and nuclear yield research at its nuclear research facilities. A former Soviet nuclear weapons expert has helped Iran develop both the initiation system and crucial diagnostic system to monitor detonations of an implosive device. On the missile side, it has a program in place that can integrate a new, properly sized, spherical payload for the Shahab-3 ballistic missile that can accommodate the high-explosive and detonation system developed by Iran.

Netanyahu states Iran is expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities, developing its missile program, and building a plutonium reactor at Arak, expected to go on stream in the next six months. Israel will need to destroy the nuclear reactor at Arak before it is activated, to prevent collateral damage to civilians from radioactive radiation.

Later this month, October 15, Iran will meet the five permanent UN’s Security Council members plus Germany (P5+1) in Geneva to resume negotiations aimed at resolving the years-old nuclear dispute. Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly launching a new, last-ditch effort to persuade the United States to credibly revive the military option against Iran. If this proves unsuccessful, Israeli television Channel 2 reported, Netanyahu will have to decide whether to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by this winter at latest, because after that, the report indicated, the assessment is that Israel’s window for military intervention will close. If the prime minister’s effort fails, “Netanyahu will have to make a decision in the next few months” over “whether to attack Iran by the winter.” The report stressed considerable support for a resort to military force within the cabinet, and concluded: “This could happen.”

Israeli intelligence will determine if Israel attacks Iran this fall or next spring, not public opinion or the Obama administration. President Obama will be out of office in three years. If Israel destroys Iran’s nuclear facilities the problem will be solved for now. Only God knows the future.

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