Beginning with the start of the 2012 season, the website found that two components are the key to determining how to wager on a total below 40: where the game is being played and the final result of that team’s previous game.
When looking at the difference between home and away teams, Vegas Experts discovered that how the team did in its prior contest had notable contrasts for totals bettors.
Home teams coming off a victory had a modest (albeit winning) 8-5 record in favor of the over, while those teams trying to bounce back from a defeat had an 11-6-1 mark in favor of the under.
The records are reversed when looking at road teams in this situation, since those squads coming off a win have stayed under the listed total in 11 of 14 games. Also, when looking to make amends after a defeat, the road team tends to put points on the scoreboard, with a 13-5-1 mark favoring the over.
Ironically, this Sunday matches two teams that will be coming from opposite ends of the spectrum as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to face the Tennessee Titans. Last week, the Chiefs picked up a 31-7 win over the winless New York Giants, while the Titans nearly matched the winning margin in a 38-13 victory over the New York Jets.