Iran wants talks as congress moves to stop oil exports

BROOKINGS, Ore. - Aug. 13, 2013 - PRLog -- The House of Representatives easily passed a bill to tighten sanctions on Iran. The bill would cut Iran’s oil exports by another 1 million barrels per day to near zero, in an attempt to cut-off funds for its nuclear program. The Senate is expected to introduce a similar measure in September.

While shipments of Iran oil have been reduced, many energy experts believe U.S. sanctions will not stop China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey and India from buying Iranian oil. Emerging markets rely on less expensive Iranian oil, and China is expected to top U.S. as the world’s biggest net oil importer in October, 2013. India’s Finance Minister recently indicated India wants to buy more Iranian crude to offset the hit oil imports impose on India’s international balance of payments. Under a proposed plan India will buy Iranian oil with rupees, and Iran would use the rupees to buy Indian goods such as food and pharmaceuticals needed by Iran.

While Western sanctions have cut Iran oil imports in half, many political experts doubt U.S. unilateral sanctions will reduce Iran exports much further. Sanctions failed to stop India and Pakistan nuclear programs, and many believe sanctions will not stop Iran‘s nuclear program.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is said to be in the process of establishing a new cabinet to overcome Iran’s economic crisis and diplomatic isolation.  The Obama administration is preparing to communicate to Iran's president its desire to hold direct negotiations in the coming weeks over Tehran's nuclear program, senior U.S. officials have said. Israel’s Prime Minister stated Rouhani wrote a book on negotiating while moving forward with the enrichment of uranium. Israel officials have stated they have the right to defend their nation. 

The current world oil market is tight. OPEC predicts world demand will grow in the rest of 2013 due to seasonal demands. For 2013 as a whole, OPEC forecasts world oil use will grow by 780,000 bpd. Global oil demand is estimated to average 91.1 million bpd in Q3, versus demand of 89.6 bpd in Q2.

In the face growing oil demand from emerging markets, and normal increased seasonal demand, unplanned disruptions will cause the oil market to be tight during the second half of 2013, despite the 1 million bpd increase in U.S. non-conventional shale oil production. Unplanned non-OPEC supply disruption averaged 800,000 bpd in July. These disruptions include South Sudan, Syria and Yemen. Disruptions and sanctions have also reduced OPEC exports by over 1.5 million bpd. from in Iraq, Libya, and Iran. Political unrest in Syria, Yemen, Egypt, and tension between Israel and Iran, have caused a geo-political premium to be added to the price of oil.

The mass media believes Jewish Arab tensions are caused by new Israeli settlements in the West Bank. However, Arabs fought with Jews in Palestine before Israel became a nation in 1948. The real issue is a clash of worldviews. Islam rejects the historicity of King David and the Christian belief in the atoning death of Christ as God. Iran Shiites believe the 12^th Imam will return to lead Muslims to rule the world.

The U.S. and Israel are in a different time zone, in regards to Iran‘s nuclear program. President Obama believes he can destroy Iran’s nuclear program next year while they are constructing a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu’s red line is now, before they have enough enriched uranium to build a bomb. Few people are talking about the Arak plutonium facility projected to be activated this winter. Many experts believe Israel must attack in 2013. After Israel obtains additional air refueling capacity, and new technology from the U.S., and after the religious feasts this September, many believe Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facility this fall. Ecclesiastes 3:1 & 8,  “ There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens. A time to love and a time to hate a time for war and a time for peace“.

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