CUNY CREST Institute develops high-resolution simulation model for extreme weather events prediction

NEW YORK - March 29, 2013 - PRLog -- The City University of New York’s (CUNY) CREST Institute has announced that scientists have developed an urban Weather Forecasting Model (uWRF) for more precise urban forecasts.  By including a building height parameterization and a building energy model for the urban canopy sub-layer, simulations account for local dynamics and anthropogenic heat in the environment typical to New York City as well as other densely developed urban areas.  “Our modeling takes into account the unique characteristics of urban areas and enhances our ability to accurately anticipate extreme weather events that threaten densely populated urban areas.  We have configured such modeling approach and tested under heat wave conditions for the City of New York with very optimistic results,” said Dr. Jorge Gonzalez, CREST Professor of Mechanical Engineering and project Principal Investigator.

The CREST model improves upon the widely-used existing Weather Forecasting Model, in which cities are represented using the same techniques adopted from rural areas.  CREST’s uWRF captures the influence of cities on wind, temperature, and humidity by accounting for urban-specific factors such as building surfaces and building heat due to occupants and equipment.  

In addition to enhancing city and regional near-term weather forecasts and storm prediction, the uWRF represents a valuable tool to understand the larger implications of the interrelated natural-human system.  The effort is a collaboration between the following organizations; the CREST Institute, NCAR, San José State University, the NSF supported CUNY-High Performance Computer Center, and the Spanish Research Center for Energy, Environment and Technology (CIEMAT).  

CUNY Remote Sensing Earth System (CREST) Institute.  CREST Institute is as an internationally recognized research and educational collaborative for advancing Earth System Science and Engineering through State-of-the-art Technologies.  

Surface temperature distribution (left) and differences between modeling and observation (right) at 1500 LST July 6th during the heat wave event that took place July 5th-7th, 2010 in NYC Metro Area.  The small errors between model and observations in mid and downtown areas represent a significant improvement over existing modeling capabilities.