New Econometric Semiconductor Forecast First to Generate Monthly Forecasts

Feb. 12, 2013 - PRLog -- A groundbreaking new econometric semiconductor industry forecast predicts semiconductor wafer area production to grow slightly less than 6% in 2013, according to Linx Consulting, the premier electronic materials consultant to the semiconductor industry.

The new demand-driven forecasting service, called The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast, is the first to use rigorous, state of the art, global GDP macroeconomic models to provide semiconductor industry forecasts at a quarterly frequency with monthly updates, allowing forecast recipients to plan for short-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry.

“An unstable global economy leads to wide variations in economic forecasts, making it difficult to develop meaningful demand-side forecasts,” said Mark Thirsk, Managing Partner, Linx Consulting. “Our econometric forecast model allows us to develop more accurate forecasts on a monthly and quarterly basis, which are vital for operations planning and business forecasting in the semiconductor supply chain.”

The new forecasting service uses a proven macroeconomic forecasting tool that incorporates measures of economic uncertainty, global economic shocks, and regional volatility to develop a Silicon area forecast for the global semiconductor industry.  Predictions for 2013 show several notable trends:  

1.    Overall Si area growth for 2013 should average approximately 6%.  
2.    slow first quarter will be followed by a strong second quarter with moderate growth in the second half of the year.
3.     The modest growth forecast for 2013 is predominantly demand driven since inventory levels have not shown a significant increase in 2012.

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast will provide subscribers with monthly updates of quarterly forecasts of total semiconductor production in Million Square Inches of silicon processed, as well as segmentation by device as follows:

·      DRAM

·      Flash

·      MPU

·      ASIC

·      Analog

·      Discrete

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is based on an advanced econometric forecasting model developed by Duncan Meldrum of Hilltop Economics in conjunction with Linx Consulting.  

The model is based on a demand-driven equation that captures >98% of the long run variation in semiconductors and includes:

•       Global real GDP growth (from consensus forecasts)

•       US consumer and business spending on technology goods

•       Inventory-shipments ratio, computer & electronics

•       Financial crisis shock indicator to capture panic behavior in latest cycle

Linx Consulting is the leading electronic materials consulting firm, serving the semiconductor, photovoltaics, and electronics industries worldwide. The firm develops unique insights and creates knowledge at the intersection of advanced thin film processing and performance chemicals and materials.

Hilltop Economics LLC was founded by Duncan Meldrum, PhD to focus on business economic research and forecasting projects.  Meldrum has over thirty years experience in the application of economics to forecasting and business analysis, first as the chief economist for Air Products and Chemicals, then as the director of the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS Global Insight. His experience includes frequent presentations on economic conditions and industry outlooks for major semiconductor industry events and meetings.

To obtain more information about The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast contact Mike Corbett at +1-973-437-4517, Mark Thirsk at +1-617-273-8837, or by e-mail at info@linxconsulting.com. More information about Linx Consulting can be found at http://www.linx-consulting.com.

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