“The exploration frontiers of Eastern Africa are enormous both onshore and offshore, including Exclusive Economic Zones and deep-water opportunities and ultra-deep plays. The 15 states in this region are diverse in scale, terms, ventures and in regard to exploration cycles and discoveries, while more and more companies have entered the open acreage and more blocks have been leased than ever before with more drilling commitments concluded. Equally foreign state companies have come to eastern Africa (like CNOOC, PTTEP) and the Super-Majors have shown renewed interest not only in the primary acreage market but also in the secondary transactions markets for corporate acquisition and farm-ins. The impact of this resurgence is re-balancing the Africa oil industry landscape – once primarily with a dominant North/West African focus – into a wider Continental oil and gas/LNG game, with potentially global consequences.
The recent gas discoveries offshore in Mocambique and Tanzania are large and world-class, with potential for more to come, including prospects for an oil leg. These finds will lead to LNG plants on both sides of the Rovuma River, and will make the zone akin to the Northwest Shelf in Australia, but situated on the western edge of the Asian LNG import market and in competition with older supply centres in Southeast Asia and Australasia. The global market will in time accommodate the LNG supply that will be scheduled in trains scaling upwards to absorb the gas reserves and development profile. The discoveries will add substantial net wealth to the Eastern African littoral states where they are located, and induce higher economic growth rates and regional development in once-remote and poor onshore zones. Amongst challenges will be the timing of LNG developments, scalar choices in trains, settlement of partnerships (even possible Anadarko equity sell-down), the corporate politics of unitisation of adjacent blocks in Mocambique (between Anadarko/ENI and partners), operator-ship decisions, possible changes in gas clauses in contracts that might see Government revisions sought, and competition in East Asia and the Sub-Continent for long term off-take agreements (related to volume/price notably), and the solicitation of buyer interest along with the negotiation of contracted terms of sale.”
Themes covered include: Government policies, state interventions in the oil/energy market, state oil/energy companies, private energy investments and interests, corporate portfolio and strategies, new entrants, competition and regulation, plus critical issues impacting the Eastern African future
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