So putting it all together, what does this mean for the true state of the US economy? Recall back in September one of our Charts of the Day was the number of Unemployed and Underemployed for the month of August, which was 25.8 million. Readers may be surprised to learn that when putting it all together, in September this number increased to 26.2 million.
Twitter post by the great Jack Welch regarding the mysterious jobs number improvement:
“Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers” POSTED OCT 5,2012]
Somebody had the backbone to call it for what it is, an extremely convenient & mysteriously magical jobs reversal after a steady 4 year trend that couldn’t be broken no matter what they threw at it. Mostly conveniently is the fact that it came at the absolutely perfect moment (the last jobs report w/ time to be digested before voters go into the booth to cast their vote) right on the heels of the abysmal debate performance we saw last week & in time to be a good election talking point. The irony here is that I knew this was the card they would play at this exact moment and I even called it out back in February, so there was no excitement here when they dropped this bombshell in the headlines. You see, modern day politics is about statistics & the science of the predictability of human behavior, sadly its no longer about connecting with the voters & being a real person. Knowing that everything done in the modern political sparring that is being presented to us as organic & wholesome is contrived and fueled by statistics, if you know the statistics they are paying attention to you can with some startling accuracy predict what they will do next. Worth mentioning is the fact that the jump in jobs was for part time workers so does that really show improvement in the labor market?
Enter the magical employment report which is the best jobs report in almost three decades some are reporting. The writing was on the wall that this was the card to be played next as statistics clearly illustrate that throughout ALL of American history there has NEVER been an incumbent president that successfully secured a re-election with unemployment at or above 8%. NEVER BEFORE IN US HISTORY! So if you were aware of this little US fun fact than you knew it was coming and didn’t get suckered into the herd’s excitement, but instead you were able to stay back far enough to see the greater picture at large.
Now that we have established that this magical employment report is suspect, lets look at the bigger picture for a moment. Record unemployment, record food stamp dependency, record reduction in the net worths of Americans, record social security disability enrollment, record bankruptcies, record bankrupt local & state govt.s, record federal deficits, record debt monetization, record low bank lending, record high levels of crime waves across the nation, record levels of emotional depression around the world, record levels of violent protest & riots thanks to the depression globally, do I need to continue? How exactly is there a recovery in all of those not so good record breaking statistics? Just because you magically change some numbers around doesn’t fix the core issue and therefor the crisis will continue.
We are in for a really rude awakening soon enough. The longer we deny the true nature of this new normal the more impactful it will be when it is finally realized. Maybe its time to start thinking about the “what ifs”? What if gas stations ran out of gas where I live? What if I couldn’t fill up my car to get to work? Would I lose my job? Can I afford to lose my job? If there is no gas for long enough will it affect the grocery stores ability to keep the shelves stocked? Should I begin to prepare for these types of supply side interruptions?