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President Obama delays Israel attack on Iran, but trails Governor Romney

Obama administrations was successful in delaying Israeli attack until Spring of 2013. However, poor debate performance may cost re-election. Prime Minister Netanyahu called for early election in Israel.

 
PRLog - Oct. 13, 2012 - BROOKINGS, Ore. -- President Obama was successful in his campaign to delay an Israel attack of Iran’s nuclear facilities,  but is in jeopardy of loosing his re-election campaign.  Senate majority leader Harry Reid and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi helped rush through the U.S.-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act of 2012,  which provided American KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft,  bunker buster bombs,  and additional funding for missile defense,  in exchange for Israel delaying an attack on Iran until after the U.S. presidential election.  The Obama administration was successful in full court pressure in delaying an Israeli attack until the spring of 2013.  Recent polls show 77 percent of Israelis now oppose a military attack on Iran that is not approved by Washington, although 71 percent would support an attack with American consent.

However,  due to a poor showing in the first Obama-Romney debate,  Romney has surged ahead in some national presidential polls.   Charles Krauthammer,  in the Washington Post,  described Obama as looking small and uncertain,  while Romney looked calm and presidential.  Many commentators believe one more poor performance by President Obama in  one of the last two debates, and Romney will win by a substantial margin.  President Obama must articulate a case for why he should be re-elected.  Since he can not stand on his record,  he must demonize Governor Romney.  However,  if he becomes too aggressive and desperate,  like vice-president Joe Biden,  he will loose his likeability factor,  which is his only redeeming quality.  

A Romney victory would insure a close relationship between the U.S. and Israel.  VP Joe Bidden,  in the debate with Paul Ryan,  rejected Benjamin Netanyahu’s red line of Iran’s uranium enrichment threshold,  and stated the Obama policy is to wait until a detonation device was constructed.  Netanyahu maintains western intelligence is not capable of monitoring the construction of a detonation device,  which could be constructed in the basement of a house somewhere in Iran.  The red line must be the accumulation of enough enriched uranium to build a bomb.  

It has been reported that Mitt Romney would back unilateral military action by Israel against Iran’s nuclear sites.  Dan Senor,  Romney’s senior national security aid told reporters,  “If Israel has to take action on its own, in order to stop Iran from developing that capability, the governor would respect that decision.”  Romney told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer there should be “no daylight between the United States and Israel.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for early elections in Israel,  instead of as scheduled in October 2013.  The balloting could be as early as January 15, but many speculate it will be set for mid-February, which would make Mr. Netanyahu the first Israeli government in more than two decades to complete a four-year term.  The Prime Minister’s Likud Party is in a strong position, and many believe Netanyahu will be able to consolidate his political power.  If Mitt Romney is inaugurated in January,  2013,  as the President of the United States,  Romney and Netanyahu will establish a close alliance.

The slowing world economy has put downward pressure on crude oil prices.  Oil production is rising in the face of slowing demand.  However, quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve has been bullish for oil, by lowering the value of oil priced in dollars.  Flow of funds into oil speculation has desensitized the price of oil to the fundamentals of supply and demand.  Some commodities experts believe two-thirds of the price of oil is based upon geo-political and easy credit conditions,  and one-third on fundamentals.   Some see stagflation ahead with rising commodity prices and slowing economic growth.

Newfield Exploration is an example of a company which has done well in transitioning from natural gas production to black oil exploration,  with horizontal drilling,  in a slow economy.  Disclaimer:  I am long Newfield Exploration.

Written by Dr. Stephen Johnston, author of “Tea Party Culture War: A clash of worldviews.”

For more information on the oil market, and conditions in the Middle East go to: "Tea Party Culture War.com."

For media interviews contact Dr. Stephen Johnston at: 1 (541) 469-2115.

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Source:Author, "Tea Party Culture War"
Phone:(541) 469-2115
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Location:Brookings - Oregon - United States
Industry:Energy, Economics
Tags:israel, iran, presidential election, crude oil, romney
Last Updated:Oct 13, 2012
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