Designed for assessing energy production at onshore and offshore wind farm locations, the Wind Production Forecast Plus uses site observations, combined with the Met Office’s Unified Model, surface data and high resolution site-specific modelling to produce half-hourly predictions out to six days ahead.
The Wind Production Forecast Plus is an enhanced option on the Met Office’s successful Wind Production Forecast; the key enhancement being the use of wind speed observations from the site to further increase forecast accuracy and the addition of a nowcast. Using site observations significantly reduces forecast bias, giving customers even greater confidence in predicting how much energy will be produced.
Mo Rezvani, Head of Forecasting at energy supplier SSE, said: “We have been using the new Met Office Wind Production Forecast Plus for the last few months and have been impressed with the accuracy. Recent comparisons have shown it to be the most accurate of those that we receive. Highly accurate weather forecasts are a critical part of predicting power output at our sites.”
Rob Harrison, Head of Renewables at the Met Office, said: “Our dedicated Renewables Science Team are continually striving to deliver robust innovations that meet the needs of our customers and deliver the accuracy that is required from a wind farm weather forecast.
“With sophisticated lagging and blending techniques and the addition of Kalman filtered site observations, our new forecast option gives operators increased confidence in their power estimations, minimising the risk of having to generate or buy energy from elsewhere, or facing penalty charges as a result of incorrect estimations of wind energy production.”
The Wind Production Forecast and Wind Production Forecast Plus are designed to complement the Met Office’s existing suite of products for the wind energy industry; Virtual Met Mast™ and VisualEyes™. Together they provide the complete package of weather information to help the industry from site search, selection and development through to operations.
The Met Office is a world-leading provider of weather and climate services – one of the top two operational weather forecasting centres in the world. For more information on our services for the renewable energy sector, please visit www.metoffice.gov.uk/