"If you print it, investors will like it." That is what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is counting on with the new Quantitative Easing program, Part 3 (QE3). With a new round of bond buying, specifically mortgage-backed securities and with the commitment to keeping interest rates to banks low through 2015, institutions and investors seem poised for a rise in the market. Several people anticipated the announcement and pushed the markets higher over the last few weeks and when it was made official last Thursday, the markets reacted immediately and continued through Friday's trading. What can we expect from this point forward? Expect the market to continue higher, perhaps another 3%-5% at least through October (with a few pauses here and there in the trading activity). Analysts have stated that by giving the market a charge leading into the election, people will feel that things are getting better since their retirement accounts are gaining ground and perhaps back to even after a 5 year decline and rise again. This would be the emotional response despite flat to negative economic numbers. In the end at some point, someone has to pay the bill. We have spoken about the fiscal cliff in the past and now that Congress is on recess until after the election, this has put the last two months into extreme focus and will put strain on the markets. Meaning, high volatility during the holiday's.
Time will tell if this move will help one of the Fed's mandates which is Unemployment. There is record cash on the books with S&P 500 companies and they are not using it for hiring. Most of the companies are holding off until the Election results and Fiscal Cliff issues are resolved and determine the fallout, if any from both. Also, a political mistake (from both sides) was the lack of conviction to motivate these companies with a tax-break policy to repatriate their foreign funds and include additional payroll tax vouchers for employees hired with these funds. This would boost their balance sheets, money would flow to our markets, tax revenue would be created where there originally was none and help local and state tax revenue because of those new hires. Sound too simple, perhaps, but something has to give on the anemic employment growth and help our local townships and cities avoid adding more debt to fund their budget voids and fend off possible bankruptcy.
Market Direction: Before the announcement we were looking for a pullback in the markets, down near the S&P 500 Index level of 1,370. Since this announcement was over the top as what was expected and the major rally that followed, we can only hop on the momentum bandwagon and climb aboard. As the market rallies, some retail investors will try and jump on. Some will be there for part of the climb, but when the core retail investors usually come back in (typically at the top of the market), its time to get out (or at least lighten the more profitable positions at that time).
Stock Picks: We have three(3) stock picks that we expect to perform well between now and the election. EMAIL us to get those three(3) picks and our Target Prices.
Portolio Suggestion: Do not be completely Long by the election and suggest reducing positions in the Growth and Speculative portions of your portfolio. Short and Intermediate duration Bond ETFs are doing well with consistent Dividends and Capital Growth. Also Preferred Stock ETFs have been doing very well for the past year while many of them are paying Monthly Dividends with healthy yields.
Publication: Upcoming Investor's Business Daily (IBD) Article. The week of September 24th IBD will be publishing the "Q4 2012 Top ETF Picks". Ronald Lang, Principal at Atlas will be one of the featured contributors. We will email you the link to this article (It will be in Print and on the Investors.com Web Site).
Articles: Upcoming Articles from Atlas Wealth Management - "Investing Wisely: Women in Transition", "Compound This: Your Path to Wealth" and "College Planning Should Be Easy". All should be released and posted to the Web Site by the end of October.
Webinars: There are three(3) Webinars on Wealth Building, Retirement Planning and College Planning you should put on your calendar. http//:www.AtlasBuildsWealth.com
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Remember, this article and commentary is not "advise" or any form of a "recommendation"
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About Atlas Wealth Management, LLC
We provide the following financial services; Financial Planning, Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Corporate 401(k) and Business & Personal IRA programs, Financial Advisor or Executor of Trusts, Estates and Wills. We also offer other financial options such as; Private Placement/Hedge Funds/Venture Capital to qualified investors. Since we have a strong Suitability and Fiduciary duty towards our clients, we always have your best interested in mind. Web Site - http://www.AtlasBuildsWealth.com
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