Lowney spoke about risks that could derail the long awaited U.S. housing recovery, saying he based his risk assessment analysis on two presumptions:
“We are cautiously optimistic near-term, with the provision that it’s going to be very low housing starts relative to historical levels,” Lowney said of the U.S. market.
Lowney identified risk factors experts fear could stall the U.S. housing recovery and assessed their likely impact; however, he sees the U.S. housing market continuing to recover, based on stabilizing home prices, steady employment growth and a reduced inventory of existing homes. “The risks,” Lowney said, “are macroeconomic in nature…a blow-up of the euro, a recession due to going over a fiscal cliff, or an oil shock or policy-induced error. Long-term, the demographic underpinnings of U.S. housing demand are sound.”
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