Phoenix Real Estate Stats for June 2012

June sales jumped up 8.1% to a total of 9,129, representing the fourth highest month over month gain out of the last twelve months.
 
July 11, 2012 - PRLog -- Resourced from and copy allowed with full disclosure of resource.



ARMLS® STAT - July 3, 2012
SALES Month over Month
June sales jumped up 8.1% to a total of 9,129, representing the fourth highest month over month gain out of the last twelve months. Robust sales over 7,000 occurred in eleven out of the last twelve months, with June being the highest.

SALES Year over Year
June sales of 9,129 fell 17.9% short of the same 2011 sales figure. However, June’s figure is well above (11.66%) the 12 month average of 8,176. It also reflects a typical seasonal uptick between May and June enjoyed for seven out of the last ten years (2002, 2006 and 2007 excepted).


NEW INVENTORY
New inventory, (9,271) remained relatively flat for the fourth month in a row, showing no monthly gain over May. June’s new inventory figure is 10.9% below the June 2011 new inventory figure.

TOTAL INVENTORY
Total inventory fell 1.5% in June to 19,857, representing the fifth month in a row that to-tal inventory declined. Since the decade high of 58,178, total inventory has fallen 65.87%. In addition, 53.69% of that occurred between January 2011 and June 2012.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)
Total month’s supply of inventory declined for the fifth month in a row to a Valley wide MSI of 2.18. MSIs at the very low two month level have not been seen since September 2005 (2.14 MSI) at the height of Valley’s real estate buying frenzy.

NEW LIST PRICES
New list prices fell slightly (.7% for the median and 2.7% for the average) to land at $155,900 for the median new list price and $227,900 for the average new list price. The trend lines for both the median and average show only a modest incline over the past twelve months.



SALES PRICES
Disappointingly, sales prices dipped for the first time since February by 2.8% for the median sales price ($141,000) and 5.1% for the average ($194,300). Long haul consideration gives the June sales price metrics some perspective. From a low of $109,000 twelve months ago, the median sales price gained 29.36%, even with June’s 2.8% decline. The average sales price over a similar period gained 25.25%, despite June’s 5.1% decline. For a market that has had a steady diet of one step forward, two steps back for the last two years, June’s sales price figures are not a cause for alarm.

THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™
The ARMLS Pending Price Index (PPI) is a forecasting tool unique to ARMLS which uses pending data in the MLS system to predict sales prices 30 days into the future. Last month the PPI predicted the June median sales price to land at $140,000, missing the mark by .71%, with the actual median of $141,000. May’s prediction of the June average sales price missed its target by only .47% to land at $193,400, with the actual average sales price coming in at $194,300.
The PPI prediction for July is mixed with the median predicted to buoy up at $145,000 and the average to decline again to $190,100.


FORECLOSURES PENDING
Foreclosures pending fell by 3.69% in June to 17,910. Foreclosures pending began to drop in earnest in November 2009, when the monthly foreclosures pending high point was 50,568. However, the trend line for foreclosures pending has remained relative flat since January, indicating that lenders continue to foreclose, and that the return to fore-closures in the 5,000-6,000 range, widely considered the market normal, remains elusive for the present. What began in 2007 as a “light at the end of the tunnel,” is still a bright spot, but in a tunnel much longer than anticipated.

DISTRESSED SALES
Distressed sales as a percentage of all sales hiccupped 3.4% higher to 46.8%. This metric saw its high point of 74.1% of sales in September 2010. Distressed sales are composed of short sales and foreclosures. Since ARMLS began tracking the distress in January 2010, foreclosures dominated the distressed property composition. In November 2011, the foreclosure and short sales trajectories crossed, with short sales assuming domi-nance. Of the 4,273 distressed sales in June, 2,990 (32.8% of total sales) were short sales, and 1,283 (14.1% of total sales) were foreclosures. That is a 2.33 short sale to foreclo-sure ratio. Lender appetite for short sale over foreclosures is a healthier solution for the home owner, the lender and the community.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)
Days on Market fell ten days in June to 75, a low not seen since July/August 2006. Valley DOM reached its decade high of 138 in February 2008, and since that time has fallen by 63 days or 45.65% to its current level. Market wide DOM is used solely as a barometer of market health and is not intended to be used to gauge DOM in smaller market niches which have their own unique DOM.



COMMENTARY
June’s good news showcases an 8.1% increase in total sales, continuing the strong demand seen over the last twelve months. While all four pricing metrics (median and average new list price and sales price) declined slightly, they still continued on the same upward trajectory begun in September/October 2011. Phoenix Metro’s rise in home prices, despite the downtick in June, outpaces national and regional gains in other west markets.1 Foreclosures pending continued their decline. Total distressed property as a percentage of total sales ticked up 3.4%, but the overall trend line is declining.
Lack of inventory continues to frustrate Buyers and their Agents. The tightening noose of low inventory ex-presses itself in metrics such as DOM, which fell 10 days in June, and MSI, which dropped from 3.88 in January to 2.18 in June.
While total inventory for June is 19,857, the bulk (15,245)of that inventory lies below $350,000. Masking the lack of inventory is the inclusion of AWC listings (active with contingency) into the active/accepting backup offers bucket. Of the 15,245 listings below $350,000, only 8,892 are active, with 6,353 in the AWC status. Confusion about AWC, spawned by the industry rise in short sales, prompted many Agents to place listings, relegated by lenders to “short sale limbo” while waiting for final approval or signatures, into the AWC status. Many of these listings belong more appropriately in pending, since they are no longer accepting backup of-fers.
Since April, ARMLS has been tracking the percentage of AWCs in the total active pool of $350,000 and below. Over the three month period, the percentage of AWCs in the total active pool has dropped from 49% to 45% to 41% in June. ARMLS encourages Agents to place listings into pending status, even though not all signatures or approvals are in place, if those listings are really not accepting backup offers.
New home building, which came to a near standstill in the Valley in recent years, is showing some signs of life. June saw Arizona building permits reach a three year high, which will eventually add additional housing to available inventory.2 Efforts such as the Phoenix City Council’s new six month pilot program to reduce red tape and permit turnaround times and lower expenses, will encourage much needed new building.3
Discouraging news on the job front indicating that the job market is cooling4, reminds us just how fragile the Valley’s recovery is. Affordability though remains the Valley’s recovery trump card, and is aided by mortgage interest rates at unprecedented low levels. Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) aver-aged 3.66% for the week ending June 28, 2012. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.51%.5 Once again, the Valley’s recovery prognosis is steady as she goes.
Maureen Karpinski
Find your Phoenix Arizona Property at http://www.cactuscountryproperty.com/city/phoenix.htm
Posted by Cactus Country Arizona Homes & Properties http://www.cactuscountryproperty.com
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