The formula was created by Andrew Bernard, professor of international economics at the Tuck School of Business in New Hampshire, after the Atlanta Games in 1996. When he had previously used the formula, he attained a 95% accuracy rate.
The formula was also followed by Emily Williams using four factors to determine medal share – population, GDP per capita, medal share from the previous Olympics and the Olympics host country. Some factors may cancel each other out, for example, Brazil’s larger population and Netherlands higher GDP per capita.
For Great Britain, the formula translates this into 15 extra medals towards Britain’s potential medal count, 6 of which will be gold. This will mean that Team GB will be making their highest medal haul since the Second World War, beating the 47 that Britain won at the previous Olympics in Beijing, 2008.
The prediction also suggests that countries which performed well during Beijing Olympics will repeat same results in the London Olympics with Russia, Germany and Australia expected to achieve lower results once again.
Other prediction indicates that USA will top the overall medal table with 103, followed by China at 94, Russia with 67, Great Britain at 62 and Australia will win 42.
In terms of gold medals, Britain will rank third with 25 gold medals, USA will rank second with 35 gold medals and china will rank in first place with 48 gold medals.
According to Williams who received executive education at LBS,”The formula has been so reliable in the past, there is no reason to think it won't be this time”.
For more information of Emily Wiiliams or executive education at london business school, visit https://www.london.edu/