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For 2012, the International Monetary Fund report shows a slowdown in the global economy. The market will not maintain upward momentum without massive FED QE3 stimulus. However, the political headwinds in America are negative on pumping more money into the economy by offering U.S. treasury bonds. It’s a strategy to kick the can down the road increasing debt that will have a major impact on the ability of future generations to create job growth, upgrade education and personal financial savings that will further hamper housing markets, comments James Rickman III.
If the economy deteriorates, we may be looking at a very tough 2012 November election bid for President Obama. It could benefit Presidential candidate Mitt Romney as the focus is on jobs and economic fiscal policy in the upcoming election. Romney, a budget hawk would cut the size of government and reduced spending but accelerate small business innovation and new job creation through private sector investment coupled with better foreign trade policies that benefit middle class Americans.
The Euro cannot be artificially stimulated forever, we may see over the next two years a break off in Spain, Italy, Greece and France headed back to issuing their own currencies again. Germany would remain the de-facto keeper of the EURO used like U.S. dollars are traded in South America. Such a plan would allow for easing and the write down of sovereign debt in troubled European countries. The governments in Europe must also provide jobs and economic opportunities to the people otherwise civil unrest will prevail as we see throughout the Middle East.
The global economic outlook has slowed rapidly as the price of oil, agriculture food commodities and equities have dropped further indicating a significant slowdown in output. Companies are reporting decent earnings but it cannot be sustained as markets slow particularly the emerging markets retreat will be pronounced. The U.S. debt is $15.7 trillion about 104% of GDP. Another round of FED quantitative easing (QE3) would push the U.S. debt to 120% - 130% of GDP. Such a strategy would likely result in a downgrade of U.S. credit ratings which would impact the bond and equity market. Interest rates would rise with the downgrading of the U.S. credit rating. Higher interest rates will also impact U.S. job growth eroding the ability to create new jobs and increase the unemployment rate.
Where to Invest 2012 – 2013
The price of GOLD is around $1583 per ounce but with FED QE3 in the works, we could see GOLD prices rise as sovereign debt becomes much more risky. Another investment play, James Rickman III, likes is high tech and healthcare equities that pay dividends like INTEL, Pfizer, IBM, Proctor & Gamble, Microsoft, Boeing, Siemens AG, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly and Company. High dividend yield equities like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) also makes a lot of sense, comments James Rickman III. Seeking long-term gains in financial bank equities like Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) are smart investments. SEE WEBSITE http://www.ihumanwebdevelopment.com