On a regional basis, the results, as well as the forecasts for 2012 are a mixed with regard to consumption, capacity, and utilization. Western European consumption remained virtually stalled while North American managed two percent growth in 2011. The CW Group expects little change in consumption growth for these markets through 2013. However, notable recoveries were seen in select core European markets such as France and Germany.
For Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Middle East regions, the forecast is more heartening as these regions will trend just slightly lower than the global average. Strength in Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Poland in particular is sustaining expansion in these regions. Projections for Africa and most of Asia have been resilient in light of unrest and economic headwinds. We note exceptions for 2011 in these regions where growth has been strong such as Indonesia and Nigeria, but offset by weakness in cement demand in Egypt, South Korea and the Philippines.
When it comes to adding capacity in 2012, it has followed a largely expected trajectory, though with a temporary hesitation in some markets such as India. Generally, Africa and parts of Asia and Latin America are seeing the biggest capacity additions in the next few years.
Furthermore, several countries will struggle with low utilization rates (below 50% of actual cement production output over total cement capacity, as opposed to only considering consumption over capacity that many in the global cement sector erroneously track). The countries that are seeing some of the greatest challenges include Greece, Spain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Iraq (though admittedly more driven by maintenance issues), Jordan, and the UAE.
In 2012, the regions of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East will keep pace with the global cement consumption average of six percent. The North American and Western European regions will fall well below growth expectations, while Africa’s consumption growth will moderate at only four percent. Barring additional macro-economic shocks to a fragile global economic system, by 2013, the CW Group expects that global cement demand will be close to 4 billion tons with china representing about 59% of the total tonnage.
The CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) provides a global, regional and country-level 3-year forecast for 58 individual countries. The GCVFR is available in subscription format with two updates annually, providing detailed information on cement consumption, production, utilization and manufacturing capacity.
The report is available directly from CW Group, by contacting us at firstname.lastname@example.org or by visiting our website at www.cwgrp.com/
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