Oil Demand To Fall, Southeast Asian Ethanol Report

Nov. 14, 2011 - PRLog -- The International Energy Agency has said global oil demand will be a bit lower than expected this year and the next as economic slowdown and high prices curb consumption but the oil market is strong and supply remains tight. Demand for oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is running ahead of output, and while some oil production from Libya has resumed earlier than expected following the overthrow of former dictator Muammar Gaddafi, it will take a long time to return to pre-conflict levels of oil output in the North African producer. In its monthly Oil Market Report, the agency estimates OPEC supply will have to rise next year to cover expected demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 90.5 mb/d, down only 70 kb/d from the previous projection. High quality global journalism requires investment. The forecast reflects a slowdown in demand growth but far from suggests a collapse in oil consumption similar to that witnessed after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008-09. The IEA said a series of production outages in the North Sea and in countries such as China, Syria and Yemen meant that non-Opec oil production would grow this year by just 100,000 b/d, compared with an estimate last month of 200,000 b/d. However, it anticipates a sharp rebound in 2012, with growth of 1.2m b/d.

Despite concerns over the outlook for demand, the IEA suggests the oil market can stay strong for some time. The IEA cut its forecast for world oil demand this year by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 89.16 million bpd, and reduced its 2012 demand projection by 20,000 bpd to 90.47 million bpd. This brought the agency's forecast for global oil demand growth in 2011 down by 90,000 bpd, but increased its estimate of expected 2012 oil demand growth by 50,000 bpd. Oil prices have been historically strong this year, with North Sea Brent averaging more than $100 per barrel, and this has helped keep a lid on consumption in many major economies. Oil inventories in Europe fell in September to their lowest level in nine years and the IEA warned that preliminary data suggested a further drop in October despite weakening regional economic growth. The cost of Brent, the global oil benchmark, surged this week to a seven-week peak above $116 a barrel, although prices have since fallen back amid the deepening political and economic crisis in Italy. OPEC oil output rose 95,000 bpd in October to 30.01 million bpd, the IEA said, with more oil from Saudi Arabia, Angola and Libya. Demand for OPEC oil and stocks was projected at around 30.5 million bpd this year, slipping only slightly to about 30.4 million bpd in 2012 as non-OPEC supplies increased.

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About Southeast Asian Ethanol:
Southeast Asian Ethanol is a private group dedicated to supporting the development of localized sugar cane based ethanol production throughout the Asian Region. - http://www.sea-ethanol.com