According to Profit Confidential, “The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. But, in the short term, the job of bear markets and bull markets is to mislead investors as to the real direction of the markets. No bull market goes straight up; no bear market goes straight down. There are peaks and valleys on the way up and on the way down. However, in the long term, the stock market does lead the economy.”
Profit Confidential says that the bear market we are presently in started in October 2007. Stocks came down steadily starting in October 2007, but the U.S. economy was doing fine at the time. By the end of 2008 though, the U.S. economy was well entrenched in the worst recession since the Great Depression. Stock bull markets tend to move in long cycles of about 20 years in duration. Bear markets have shorter cycles—about five to 10 years—as bear markets tend to deal with the excesses of preceding bull markets more quickly. In a nutshell, greed takes a long time to build up. Fear comes quickly.
Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, writes, “Of all the things the stock market has going for it (strong corporate earnings, lots of pessimism out there), the lack of investment alternatives to the stock market is key. When the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is two percent and the dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 2.5%, stocks are attractive. At some point, the stock market will fall victim to higher interest rates brought about by rapid inflation, and Phase III of the bear market will suddenly be upon us. That’s what the 10-year bull market in gold has been all about. At that point, the bear market in stocks and the economy will converge again, just like they did in 2008.”
Profit Confidential, which has been published for over a decade now, has been widely recognized as predicting five major economic events over the past 10 years. In 2002, Profit Confidential started advising its readers to buy gold-related investments when gold traded under $300 an ounce. In 2006, it “begged” its readers to get out of the housing market...before it plunged.
Profit Confidential was among the first (back in late 2006) to predict that the U.S. economy would be in a recession by late 2007. The daily e-letter correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009. And Profit Confidential turned bullish on stocks in March of 2009 and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009, to 12,876 on May 2, 2011, a gain of 99%.
To see the full article and to learn more about Profit Confidential, visit www.profitconfidential.com.
Profit Confidential is Lombardi Publishing Corporation’
Michael Lombardi, MBA, the lead Profit Confidential editorial contributor, has just released his most recent update of Critical Warning Number Six, a breakthrough video with Lombardi’s current predictions for the U.S. economy, the stock market, the U.S. dollar, the euro, interest rates, and inflation. To see the video, visit www.profitconfidential.com/