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Summary of Report -
The latest Ghana Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.30% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 1.55% of supply. African regional oil use was 3.61mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 3.59mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.10mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 10.74mn b/d in n 2010. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. This total rose to 7.13mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.80mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed 124.1bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 165.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of 213.7bcm in 2010 should reach 300.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from 89.5bcm to 134.9bcm in 2015. In 2011, Ghana will consume a forecast 2.60% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 3.37% by 2015. It will contribute a forecast 0.55% to 2011 regional gas production but, by 2015, will account for 0.87% of supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Ghana's real GDP is forecast to rise by 15.1% in 2011. We are forecasting average annual growth of 10.7% in 2011-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 69,000b/d in 2011to 94,200b/d in 2015. State-controlled Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs), including Tullow Oil, Anadarko Petroleum and Kosmos Energy, in the development of the Jubilee oil field, which should reach plateau production of 120,000b/d by H211.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Ghana's oil and gas liquids production of 79%, with volumes peaking potentially at 250,000b/d in 2016, before falling steadily to 170,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 68%, with growth slowing to an assumed 4.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 116,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to be 2.6bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 90% between 2011 and 2020, there will be a need to import at least 3.9bcm by the end of the period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Ghana shares sixth place, out of 12 ranked regional markets, with Gabon in BMI's composite Risk/Reward ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It occupies fourth place in our updated and expanded upstream ratings. The country should be able to defend its position over the medium and longer term, thanks to the explosive growth in oil output. The county's score benefits from healthy oil and gas output growth prospects, plus attractive licensing terms. Ghana is just below the middle of the league table, in joint seventh position, in BMI's updated downstream ratings, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It receives low scores for refining capacity, nominal GDP and population, but scores well for oil/gas demand growth and expansion of GDP per capita.
Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q4: 2011, is available at:
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