The S&P has already broken its 50-day moving average and is poised to break its 200-day moving average at this time. Now, it’s important to remember that these statistical indicators are just those—statistics. Last summer, the S&P broke both moving averages, consolidated for three or four months, and then reaccelerated to its current level. Just looking at the chart of the index; it does look like it’s rolling over a little bit. At the very least, the trend shows that the market looks tired, which is a word I like to use to describe a lackluster, trendless stock market.
Equities seem to be maintaining their trading correlation with the spot price of oil. That remains a good, short-term indicator that really is reflecting the current state of investor sentiment. One thing’s clear; it’s a difficult time to be stock picking in a marketplace that’s so unsure of itself. Investors want to be buyers of stocks, but the economic data so far aren’t playing ball. This is why higher-yielding, large-cap stocks should continue to outperform, as institutional investors buy yield in order to generate some sort of return on investment.
As odd as it may seem, the stock market’s actually been in a “consolidation”
The biggest worry in global capital markets is always currencies. When currencies start to experience big moves, entire countries can easily swing into major recessions. Right now, the Japanese yen currency is trading right around its record high against the dollar. The high valuation of that currency is hurting the very economic recovery that the country needs after the recent earthquake disaster.
Unknowingly, big currency moves can wreak havoc on individual pocketbooks. High levels of sovereign debt and debt ratings do matter to the marketplace and this is why investing in gold seems so attractive. As we all know, everything in financial markets involves risk. The key to outperformance is to always be aware of it and manage it as the marketplace changes. Right now, the equity market is not looking very healthy at all.
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