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New market study, "Bolivia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011", has been published

Fast Market Research recommends "Bolivia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available

 
PRLog - Jul. 22, 2011 - The new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.71% of Latin  American regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.48% of supply. Latin American regional use  averaged an estimated 7.88mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.07mn b/d in 2011 and  reach 8.69mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production averaged an estimated 10.03mn b/d in 2010 and is set  to rise to 11.66mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the  pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region exported an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total fell to an  estimated 2.15mn b/d in 2010, but is forecast to rebound to 2.97mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters  will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.  The region consumed an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010, with demand of  264bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 273bcm in 2015,  implying more than 8bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Bolivia's share of gas consumption was  an estimated 1.29% in 2010, while its share of production was 5.98%. By 2015, its share of gas  consumption is forecast to be 1.24%, with the country accounting for 6.96% of supply.  The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea  Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of  US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and  the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.  We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth  of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range,  we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of  popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian  President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the  unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.  Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and  perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80  to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for  differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept  our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to  see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand  forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.    BMI calculates Bolivian real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2010, with a 3.4% average annual increase also  forecast for 2010-2015. There is increased state control of oil and gas operations, thanks to government  policy supportive of re-nationalisation. This means the burden of development falls heavily on stateowned  Yacimientos PetrolÌferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) and its few remaining international oil  company (IOC) partners. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 56,000b/d by  2015, with the country expected to pump 57,000b/d in 2011. Consumption beyond 2010 is forecast to  increase by around 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 62,000b/d by the end of the forecast  period.    Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decrease in Bolivian oil production of 8.9%, with crude volumes  peaking in 2012 at 60,000b/d before falling steadily to 51,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil  consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 26.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2%  per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 69,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is  expected to rise steadily, from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2010 to 22.0bcm by 2020. With demand growth  of 48%, this implies that export potential will rise from an estimated 10.5bcm in 2010 to 18.0bcm by  2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.    A composite Business Environment Rating (BER) of just 38 (out of 100) ranks Bolivia ninth out of 10  countries in BMI's Latin America universe, reflecting low ratings for both the upstream and downstream  business segments. Bolivia takes eighth place in BMI's upstream ratings, 12 points ahead of Chile and  Mexico, and three points behind Ecuador. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-to-production ratio  (RPR) work in the country's favour, but are undermined by the state's greater control of assets,  deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of  the league table in BMI's updated downstream ratings, reflecting its state-controlled refining and  marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of  retail site intensity and the country's gas self-sufficiency. Venezuela is immediately ahead of Bolivia in  the regional rankings, but the seven-point gap is unlikely to be bridged in the near future.
About Business Monitor International

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/208433_bolivia_oil_gas_report_...
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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